基于ISM模型的河北省生猪生产波动影响因素分析  

An ISM-based Analysis of Influence Factors on Fluctuations of pig Production in Hebei Province

作　　者：赵刚[1] 张艳新[1] 韩童 刘丽[1] 李彤[1] 路剑[1] ZHAO Gang;ZHANG Yanxin;HAN Tong;LIU Li;LI Tong;LU Jian(Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 71000,Hebei)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第5期49-56,共8页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)

基　　金：2017年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题:“河北省生猪生产预测预警研究”(编号:201702120301);河北省现代农业产业技术体系项目:“生猪产业经济与发展研究”(编号:HBCT2018110301)

摘　　要：近年来,生猪生产波动频繁出现并有加剧趋势。采用ISM模型对引起生猪生产波动因素进行分解,探究引起生猪生产波动问题的根本原因。结果表明:政策是导致生猪生产波动的根本因素,其次是生态文明建设的要求。生猪价格的高低是导致生猪生产波动的最直接原因,仔猪进价和人工成本仅次于生猪价格。最后有针对性地提出解决问题的有效对策:加强对生猪生产的宏观调控以及疫病防控、建立生猪养殖行业预警体系、推进养殖模式推进养殖模式朝着规模化与标准化改变、防范生猪养殖中的环境风险,以期为生猪生产波动提供理论依据。In recent years,fluctuations in pig production have frequently changed and intensified.The author used ISM to decompose the factors that cause fluctuations in pig production,and to explore the fundamental causes of the fluctuations in pig production.The results show that policy is the fundamental factor that causes fluctuations in pig production,followed by the requirements of ecological civilization construction.The most direct cause of fluctuations in pig production is the price.The second are both purchase price and labor cost of pig.Finally,specific and effective countermeasures are proposed to solve the problem:strengthen the macro-economic regulation and pig epidemic diseases control,establish an early-warning system for the pig breeding industry,promote the breeding model,and advance the breeding model toward standardization to prevent environmental risks.It expects to provide a theoretical basis for fluctuations in pig production.

关 键 词：生猪生产波动 ISM模型 影响因素 河北省 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]