中美互信流失原因再探——基于对中美信任模式与互动过程的考察  

Re-exploring Causes for Mutual Trust Loss between China and the United States: From the Perspective of Trust Pattern and Interactive Process

作　　者：蒋芳菲 王玉主[1] JIANG Fangfei1];WANG Yuzhu1](Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2019年第12期15-30,共16页Pacific Journal

基　　金：中国社会科学院亚洲研究中心课题项目(YYZX2019002)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：2008年金融危机以来,中美信任程度开始不断下降。尤其是特朗普政府上台后,双方互信关系进一步遭到严重破坏,中美战略互疑与相互防范已从安全领域进一步扩展到经济、政治、科技、文化、教育等多个领域。本文认为,近年来中美互信的迅速流失既是双方在利益博弈中预期不断失败的结果,也反映了双方从有限的良性互动向恶性互动逐渐转变的过程。其根源在于中美之间建立的是一种理性信任与过程信任主导的信任模式,中美互信关系因缺乏足够的感性信任基础、外部制度保障和内部信任激励与监管机制而脆弱性、情境性较强,稳定性较弱。其直接原因则应归咎于金融危机后中美相互战略对冲机制(mutual strategic hedging)的形成以及双方在这一机制下互动过程的转变。The 2008 global financial crisis witnessed the start of decline in the degree of mutual trust between China and the United States.Especially after the Trump administration took office,not only was their trust relationship further seriously damaged,the strategic suspicions between have further expanded from the field of security to economy,politics,technology,culture,and even education.The paper proposes that the rapid loss of mutual trust between China and the US in recent years not only resulted from the continuous failure of both sides on realizing their expectations in the game of interest,but also reflected the process of transition from limited benign interaction to vicious interaction.The root lies in the establishment of the China-US trust pattern which is dominated by rational-choice based trust and process-based trust.Due to the lack of sufficient affective basis,external institutional guarantee,as well as internal trust incentive and supervision mechanism,such a mutual trust relationship is rather fragile,unstable and situational.Meanwhile,the direct cause should be attributed to the formation of mutual strategic hedging between China and the US in Asia-Pacific after the 2008 financial crisis,as well as the transformation of their interactive process under such mechanism.

关 键 词：中美关系 国家间信任 互信流失 信任模式 相互战略对冲 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]