中国房地产政策不确定性指数的构建  

China’s Real Estate Policy Uncertainty Index

作　　者：杨赞[1] 丁立群 张昊群 YANG Zan;DING Li-qun;ZHANG Hao-qun

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木建管系 [2]美国康奈尔大学酒店管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2020年第1期89-96,共8页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定性在房地产市场中的微观传导机制和效应:基于居民住房决策的研究”(项目编号:71673154)

摘　　要：中国的经济政策,特别是房地产政策存在极大的不确定性,体现在政策本身的种类、出台的时间、频率和力度,以及政策产生的影响等方面。目前针对中国经济政策不确定性的研究极为有限,且缺少着眼于房地产市场的研究。本文使用文本分析方法,基于《人民日报》《环球时报》和《北京青年报》等12份中国内地最具影响力报纸中的1314089篇文章,构建了2000年1月至2018年3月的月度中国房地产政策不确定性指数,同时对所构建指数的稳健性和准确性进行了检验。进一步,文章通过对指数与重要房地产政策发布时间和发布频率关系的解读,展示了构建指数的现实意义以及实践价值。本文首次针对中国房地产市场政策构建了不确定性指标,不仅有助于从不确定性的角度把握中国房地产市场的特点,同时也为文本分析方法在宏观经济以及房地产市场领域的应用做出了贡献。There is a great deal of uncertainty in China s economic policies,more specifically in real es tate policies such as types of policies,timing,frequency and intensity of their introduction,as well as their impact contributing to policy uncertainty However,relative researches are very limited at present This paper constructs monthly uncertainty index of China s real estate policy from January 2000 to March 2018 based on 1,314,089 articles from the 12 most published newspapers in China's Mainland(i e People s Daily,Global Times and Beijing Youth Daily).The robustness and accuracy of the index are tested in the paper Moreover,the paper demonstrates the significant contribution of the index by analyzing the relationship between the con structed index and the release time and frequency of government real estate policy This is the first paper that constructs an uncertainty index focusing on China s real estate policy The paper captures unique characteristics of China s real estate market from the perspective of uncertainty,and contributes to the application of text analysis method in macro economy and real estate market.

关 键 词：房地产政策 不确定性 指数 文本分析 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]