斯里兰卡外债问题的生成逻辑与争议辨析  

Sri Lanka’s External Debt: Controversy and Causes

作　　者：李艳芳 LI Yanfang

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心

出　　处：《国际展望》2020年第1期108-130,157,158,共25页Global Review

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“产业特征视角下中国制造业对南亚国家投资的风险识别与预警研究”(17BJL113)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：2017年以来,印度与一些西方国家不断炒作斯里兰卡等国的外债问题,意欲通过“债务陷阱论”制造反华舆论,遏制中国地缘竞争力的上升并争夺“一带一路”沿线地区主导权。从经济指标和地缘竞争两个维度分析,2011年以来斯里兰卡外债负担虽然不断扩大,但偿债风险预期可控。斯里兰卡外债问题主要由其生产、外贸、财政支出及债务管理等内部结构失衡所致,外部宏观环境及全球金融市场变化则进一步恶化了该国的增长、收入及偿债条件。来自中国的贷款对斯里兰卡外债危机影响不大,有关“债务陷阱”的指责也缺乏依据。将债务问题进行高度政治化解读并构陷中国,背后折射出深层次的地缘竞争关系。尽管“债务陷阱论”毫无依据,但可能对中斯关系以及中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的相关合作产生负面影响。对中国而言,除鼓励学者、企业在国际媒体上更多发声外,还应加强对斯里兰卡等国的债务风险评估,并积极构建更加开放、包容和多元化的地缘经济合作模式。Since 2017,India and some Western countries have been whipping up anti-Chinese sentiment by accusing China of creating mounting debts in Sri Lanka and other developing countries which are recipients of China’s BRI investments and loans.These groundless accusations are part of an international smear campaign that seeks to thwart China’s ascendance and BRI progress.Economic indicators prove that Sri Lanka’s growing debt burdens since 2011—the result of expanding productivity,trade imbalances,government deficits,and ill debt management—are manageable,although fluctuations in the global financial markets have undercut the nation’s solvency.Chinese loans and investments in Sri Lanka contribute little,if at all,to its mounting debt burdens.Politicization of the debt issue reflects the intensifying geostrategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.Charges that China is laying a debt trap in some countries,however groundless,have created negative effects on BRI cooperation.To counter these false accusations,China needs to conduct debt risk assessments and build a model of geoeconomic cooperation that is more open,inclusive,and diverse.

关 键 词：斯里兰卡 债务陷阱 一带一路 

分 类 号：F813.586[经济管理—财政学] D815[政治法律—国际关系]