农产品“价格保险+期货”模式选择机制研究——基于复杂适应性理论（CAS）的分析  

Research on the Operation Mechanism of Agricultural Products "Price Insurance + Futures" Mode——Analysis based on Complex Adaptive Theory(CAS)

作　　者：吴烨[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2019年第8期112-115,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：当前,我国农户以及农业经营主体对利用金融工具来规避价格风险的认知和意识还比较薄弱,探索农产品"价格保险+期货"模式的选择机制对于推广模式应用,保障农业生产者的利益具有十分重要的作用。本文通过logistic回归分析的方法刺激-反应模型明确农产品"价格保险+期货"模式的运作机制和影响因素。研究结果表明,家庭农场经营者性别和拥有固定资产价值对农户的模式选择产生显著的正向影响,学历以及租金则产生显著的负向影响;利用固定资产价值作为刺激要素进行分析后,发现农产品"价格保险+期货"模式通过探测器、行为系统以及效应器进行运作,并使系统功能得到了增强。因此,我国应不断开发新的农产品期货品种,完善农产品期权市场建设,并加强监管与引导。Exploring the operation process of the"price insurance + futures"model of agricultural products plays an important role in maintaining agricultural product price risks and safeguarding the interests of agricultural producers. This paper uses logistic regression analysis to determine the important factors affecting family farm operators’ willingness to participate in agricultural product price risk management, and uses the stimulus-response model to clarify the operational mechanism of agricultural product"price insurance + futures"model. The results of the study showed that the gender and fixed asset value of family farm operators had a significant positive impact on the participants’ willingness, while academic qualifications and rents had a significant negative impact. After using the value of fixed assets as a stimulus factor, the agricultural products were found. The Price Insurance +Futures model operates through detectors, behavioral systems, and effectors, and enhances system functionality.Therefore, China should continue to develop new types of agricultural products futures, improve the construction of agricultural products options market, and strengthen supervision and guidance.

关 键 词：价格保险+期货 价格风险管理 CAS理论 刺激-反应模型 模式选择 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]