城市公共租赁住房供给与需求预测研究——基于广州市保障对象需求的预测分析  

Research on Supply and Demand Forecast of Urban Public Rental Housing——Prediction and analysis based on the demand of guarantee objects in Guangzhou

作　　者：唐晓莲[1] 常林 易嘉兴 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2019年第8期153-156,160,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：本文在国家大力发展保障性住房政策的背景下,对公共租赁住房在人口增长、面积供应、价格补贴、融资渠道等方面进行探讨,基于灰色预测理论和DPS软件建立数学模型,对广州市公共租赁住房需求面积与补贴金额进行定量预测,以提升对公共租赁住房的精准供给。本文结合公共租赁住房的定位特点提出建议:即调整土地供应结构、完善多主体供给与保障策略、积极引导房地产企业转变发展模式、完善租金价格监管机制、建立公共租赁住房稳定发展的长效机制,使公租房政策真正惠及一方百姓。In the context of the country’s vigorous development of affordable housing policies, this article discusses public rental housing in terms of population growth, area supply, price subsidies, financing channels, etc., and builds a mathematical model based on gray prediction theory and DPS software. Quantitative forecast of public rental housing demand area and subsidy amount to improve the accurate supply of public rental housing. This article puts forward suggestions based on the positioning characteristics of public rental housing: adjusting the land supply structure,improving multi-substance supply and security strategies, actively guiding real estate companies to change their development models, improving rent price supervision mechanisms, and establishing long-term mechanisms for the stable development of public rental housing. Make the public rental housing policy truly benefit the people.

关 键 词：公共租赁住房 供给侧改革 租金价格补贴 融资渠道 土地供给 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]