我国林业第二产业升级与比较优势演变——基于产品空间结构理论的实证检验  

Upgrading of Secondary Forestry Industry and Evolution of Comparative Advantage in China——Empirical Test Based on Product Spatial Structure Theory

作　　者：耿利敏[1] 沈文星[1] Geng Limin;Shen Wenxing(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《林业经济》2019年第11期24-33,共10页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”（编号：14AJY014）

摘　　要：文章基于产品空间结构理论利用R软件对1992~2017年全球43个主要林产品贸易国的72种林产品的贸易数据进行两两距离测算,在构建全球林产品空间的基础上,尝试应用含有能力累积的HK模型对我国林业第二产业升级的动态演进路径和我国林产品比较优势之间的关联进行实证研究。研究发现:从全球林产品空间来看,我国林业第二产业的生产能力禀赋累积具有引领产业升级和阻止产业衰退的双重作用;我国林业第二产业还在从劳动密集型向资本、技术密集型产业转型升级,在此过程中具有适度偏离比较优势特征;我国处于全球林产品空间中较为核心领域的多是劳动密集型林产品,这些产品的显示性比较优势并没有明显的增强趋势;处于林产品边缘部分的非木质林产品如林产化工类等在很长时间内虽不具有较强的比较劣势,但并没有出现产业衰退的现象。Based on the theory of product spatial structure, this paper used R software to measure the distance between the trade data of 72 forest products from 43 major forest products trading countries in the world from 1992 to 2017. By using the HK model with capacity accumulation, we tried to make an empirical study on the relationship between the dynamic evolution path of the upgrade of China’s forestry secondary industry and the comparative advantage of China’s forestry products. The result showed that: from the perspective of global forest product space, the accumulation of productive capacity endowment of China’s forestry secondary industry has the dual role of leading industrial upgrading and preventing industrial recession. China’s forestry secondary industry is still in the process of transformation and upgrading from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and technologyintensive industries, and has the characteristics of moderate deviation from comparative advantage in this process. Most of the core areas of China’s forest products in the global space are labor-intensive forest products, and the display comparative advantage of these products has no obvious trend of enhancement. Non-wood forest products such as forest products and chemical products have not had a strong comparative disadvantage for a long time, but there has never been a phenomenon of industrial decline.

关 键 词：产品空间结构 产业升级 比较优势 能力累积HK模型 

分 类 号：F307.24[经济管理—产业经济]