基于灰色可拓模型的洮河下游泥石流易发性评价  

Evaluation of debris flow susceptibility in the lower reaches of Taohe River based on grey extension model

作　　者：崔传峰 王俊豪 崔志超 潘国营[1] CUI Chuanfeng;WANG Junhao;CUI Zhichao;PAN Guoying(Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan 454000, China;China Institute for Geo-Environmental Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资环学院,河南焦作454000 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2019年第6期40-48,共9页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：中国地质环境监测院地质调查与地质监测项目(中国地环[2017]DD0402);I48E002007幅地质灾害调查评价(中国地质调查局地质调查项目经费)

摘　　要：泥石流易发性评价对其工程防治有重要意义,以往评价中,由于主观因素过多和缺乏足够数据的定量评价,对实际情况的分析还不尽完善。为此本文选取洮河流域下游地区作为研究对象,根据泥石流的地域特点、成因和其它影响因子,在可拓学基础上建立一种泥石流易发性的评价模型,运用灰色关联度分析法定量化的分析影响因子的权重值,对研究区泥石流沟进行易发性评价。结果表明,选取的11条具有代表性的泥石流沟,有2条易发程度较高,4条易发程度中等,5条易发程度低,高易发和中易发泥石流沟在强降雨时期,易爆发泥石流,据此确定泥石流的重点防治区域,为研究区泥石流治理提供参考依据。The susceptibility evaluation of debris flow is of great significance to its engineering prevention and control,and in previous evaluations,due to the excessive subjective factors and the lack of quantitative evaluation of sufficient data,the analysis of the actual situation is not perfect.In this paper,the downstream area of Taohe Basin is selected as the study area,according to the regional characteristics,causes and other influencing factors of debris flow,an evaluation model of debris flow susceptibility is established on the basis of Extenics,and the weight value of the influence factor is analyzed by using the grey relational degree analysis.The results show that 2 of the 11 representative debris flow trenches are more prone,4 are medium,5 are prone to low degree,debris flow are very likely to outbreak in high prone and middle prone debris flow ditches during rainfall,the key prevention and control areas of debris flow are determined according to the results,which provides reference for debris flow control in the study area.

关 键 词：泥石流 洮河流域 灰色关联度 可拓学 易发性 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]