基于全偏确定度的区域水资源承载力动态评价  

Dynamic evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on full partial certainty degree

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 沈时兴[1,2] 张浩宇 陈梦璐 陈雅静 张火链 许兴寒 JIN Juliang;SHEN Shixing;ZHANG Haoyu;CHEN Menglu;CHEN Yajing;ZHANG Huolian;XU Xinghan(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering Institute,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2019年第6期38-49,共12页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401303);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51579059,51479045)

摘　　要：为尽可能挖掘联系数所隐含的各类信息价值以更准确地评价分析区域水资源承载力时空状况,利用同一度、差异度、对立度之间的模糊关系作为计算基础,求解差异度与同一度、对立度之间的偏确定度,进而改进联系数中对差异度系数的分配方式,并将该方法用于实际区域水资源承载力动态评价中。结果表明:(1)改进的差异度系数分配方式在实际评价中得到的结果与安徽省水资源承载力实际状况基本一致。(2)2011—2015年安徽省水资源承载力状况随时间有向好的发展趋势,但仍处于临界超载状况;从空间上看,安徽省水资源承载状况由北往南逐渐向好,其中皖北地区处于超载状态、皖中处于临界超载状态、皖南处于未超载状态;从承载子系统看,承载支撑力方面皖南较皖中和皖北偏好,承载压力方面皖北较皖中和皖南偏好,承载调控力方面皖中和皖南偏好。(3)评价结果显示皖北处于超载状况,主要是由于水资源支撑力偏弱;承载子系统间相对均衡发展是皖中处于承载临界状况的主要原因;皖南水资源承载状况最好,得益于较强的调控力和支撑力。由分析可知,上述动态评价分析结果合理可靠,该方法直观简便、在资源环境承载力动态评价分析问题中具有较好的推广应用价值。The value of information should be mined as much as possible when using the connection number,so as to evaluate the spatial and temporal situation of regional water resources carrying capacity more accurately.In this article,by using the fuzzy relation between the identical,discrepancy and contrary degree as the basis of calculation,the partial certainty between them is solved,and the distribution mode of the coefficient of difference degree is improved.The method is applied to the dynamic evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity.The application results show that:1)The results obtained by the improved distribution method of difference coefficient are basically consistent with the actual situation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province.2)The water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2015 has a trend of good development with time,but it is still in the critical condition.According to the spatial distribution,the status in Anhui Province is gradually improved from north to south,in which the north is in a state of overload,the middle is in a critical state of overload,and the south is in a state of being able to carry.In terms of sub-systems,the bearing capacity is larger in south,the pressure in north is greater,and the control power is on the larger side of middle Anhui and southern Anhui.3)The evaluation results show that the northern Anhui Province is in an overload situation,mainly due to the weak support of water resources;relative balanced development among load-bearing subsystems is the main reason for the critical condition of load-bearing in central Anhui Province;southern Anhui Province has the best water resources carrying capacity,benefiting from strong control and support force.Above all,the results of the dynamic evaluation analysis are reasonable and reliable.Since the fact that the method is very intuitive and simple,it has proved that the method has considerable value in popularizing and applying in the dynamic evaluation and analysis of the ca

关 键 词：水资源承载力 动态评价 时空状况 联系数 全偏确定度 安徽省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]