城市生活垃圾产生的影响因素及未来趋势预测——基于省际分区研究  

The Influencing Factors and Forecasting of Municipal Solid Waste Generation——Based on Provincial Clustering Analysis

作　　者：王琛 李晴 李历欣 WANG Chen;LI Qing;LI Lixin(Donlinks School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Offshore Engineering Company Limited,CNPC,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国石油集团海洋工程有限公司,北京100028

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期49-56,共8页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于居民行为的城市生活垃圾能源化影响机理、实施路径及策略研究”(71803007);教育部人文社会科学规划项目“可持续发展背景下城市生活垃圾管理模式研究”(18YJC630170);北京市哲学社科规划项目“碳配额约束下企业低碳发展模式优化研究——以京津冀地区制造业为例”(17JDGLA010);中央高校基本科研业务费“城市固体废弃物能源化模式研究”(FRF-BD-19-006A)

摘　　要：城市生活垃圾作为城市发展过程中的衍生物,可持续的垃圾管理及科学的垃圾处理方式成为近年来学界和政策研究的重点。其中,了解城市生活垃圾的产生机制、估算其产量趋势是决定处理方式的基础。为探究城市生活垃圾与社会经济因素的互动产生机制,选取居民消费结构等社会经济影响因素,以2008-2018年中国30个省级行政区的面板数据为分析依据,基于对不同省份经济、消费因素的分区聚类研究,构建三个经济-消费省份组别的城市生活垃圾产生机制的分区模型。在此基础上,结合逼近年份的最小二乘法和多元线性回归对不同分区的代表性省份进行垃圾产量预测。研究结果显示:第一,居民的消费结构对于城市生活垃圾的产生具有显著影响,其中居住消费支出对垃圾产生具有显著的负面影响;第二,随着垃圾处理基础设施投资的增加,城市生活垃圾的产生量减少,说明有效的相关投资可以改善目前的垃圾现状;第三,浙江省、湖南省、四川省到2020年都面临着相对于自身发展水平较为严峻的城市生活垃圾压力,而且部分地区如四川省虽然当前面临的垃圾总量不大,但是由于其存在较大的经济发展前景,未来垃圾产生量的增长速度较快。Municipal solid waste(MSW) is the derivative of urban development. Sustainable waste management and scientific disposal methods have become the focus in academic researches and policy design. Among them,understanding the generation mechanism of municipal solid waste and estimating future trend of MSW are the basis for determining the proper disposal methods.Based on the provincial panel data,this paper has used Chinese residents’ consumption structure during 2008-2018 to explore the MSW generation mechanism. Three MSW generation models for these three economic-consumption provincial groups are built. On the basis of local models,this paper has combined the ordinary least square(OLS) and multiple linear regression(MLR) to forecast the MSW generation of provinces in different regions. The conclusions of this paper are as follows:firstly,the consumption structure of residents has a significant impact on the generation of municipal solid waste,among which housing expenditure has a significant negative impact on the MSW generation;secondly,with the increase of MSW infrastructure investment,MSW generation volumes decrease,indicating that effective related investment can improve the current garbage situation;thirdly,Zhejiang,Hunan and Sichuan province will all face severe pressure of urban household waste by 2020 compared with their own development level. Although the total volume of waste faced by some regions is not large at present,due to the great economic development potential,the growth rate of MSW in the future will be fast,such as Sichuan province.

关 键 词：城市生活垃圾 消费支出结构 聚类分析 省际面板数据 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程]