基于马尔科夫链和蒙特卡洛法的继电保护风险评估策略研究  

Research on Risk Assessment Strategy of Relay Protection Based on Markov Chain and Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：张武洋 李籽良 李永照[2] 陈哲[2] 牛雪朋 汪光远 ZHANG Wuyang;LI Ziliang;LI Yongzhao;CHEN Zhe;NIU Xuepeng;WANG Guangyuan(State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Research Institute,Shenyang 110006,China;Xuji Group Corporation,Xuchang 461000,China;State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]国网辽宁电力科学研究院,辽宁沈阳110006 [2]许继集团有限公司,河南许昌461000 [3]华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《智慧电力》2019年第12期7-14,共8页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51577077)~~

摘　　要：提出了一种利用马尔科夫链和蒙特卡洛法对电网继电保护系统运行风险进行评估的新策略。首先利用马尔科夫链计算保护隐性故障的发生概率,然后利用蒙特卡洛抽样算法对电网进行故障仿真,记录每次的故障路径,循环仿真直到设置的最大仿真次数,继而依据仿真得到的故障路径计算电网继电保护的综合风险,根据风险评估结果,即可定位系统继电保护的薄弱环节。该策略可有效加强电网保护性能,进一步避免电网连锁故障的发生。仿真实验结果验证了策略的可行性。A new strategy based on Markov chain and Mento Carlo method is proposed to evaluate the risk of relay protection.Firstly,the Markov chain is used to calculate the occurrence probability of hidden failures in protection schemes.Then Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is used to simulate the power grid fault,repeat the simulations until the maximum number of simulations set is reached and record each failure path.And afterwards,the comprehensive risk of the protection can be obtained based on the failure paths.According to the results of risk assessment,the weaknesses in relay protection system can be identified.The feasibility of the strategy is verified with the simulation results,enhancing the protection performance and avoiding the occurrence of cascading failures in the power grid.

关 键 词：继电保护 隐性故障 蒙特卡洛 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM771[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]