基于自然灾害风险理论的黑龙江省玉米干旱风险评价  

Risk assessment of maize drought in Heilongjiang province based on natural disaster risk theory

作　　者：吴双[1,2] 姜丽霞 李宇光[1,2] 宫丽娟 田宝星[1,2] 吴英 WU Shuang;JIANG Li-xia;LI Yu-guang;GONG Li-juan;TIAN Bao-xing;WU Ying(Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Science,Harbin 150030,China;Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Regional Eco-Meteorology in Northeast,China Meteorological Administration,Harbin 150030,China;China Meteorological Administration Public Meteorological Service Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象科学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2019年第6期139-144,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局东北地区生态创新开放实验室开放研究基金“基于风云三号微波资料反演黑龙江省地表土壤湿度及其对比(stqx201905)”、中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所区域合作项目“东北玉米干旱和低温冷害混合发生过程监测评估技术研究”(2018SYIAEHZ1)和中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金“基于卫星遥感的秸秆露天焚烧污染物排放动态监测”(stqx201705)共同资助

摘　　要：为了明确黑龙江省玉米干旱风险区划,为农业防灾减灾和保障玉米安全生产提供参考,选取黑龙江省玉米主要种植区44个农业气象站1971-2017年气象资料及农业资料,划分玉米全生育期为玉米生长前期(出苗-抽雄),玉米生长后期(抽雄-成熟),基于自然灾害风险评价方法,以水分亏缺指数确定不同生育期干旱指标,考虑危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4项要素,引入权重系数,采用灰色关联度方法,确定四个因子对灾害发生的不同影响程度,构建危险性评估模型,评估黑龙江省玉米干旱风险,并进行了干旱风险区划。结果表明:在玉米不同发育期,干旱风险指数高值区均主要位于松嫩平原地区,其中,黑龙江西部地区为玉米干旱高风险区,中高值区分布在哈尔滨双城区以及绥化市肇东县。黑龙江省西南部地区肇州、肇源、安达等地区为中等风险区。而低值区主要分布在黑龙江东部三江平原地区以及黑河、伊春、牡丹江等地。研究结果可为黑龙江省玉米干旱防灾减灾工作提供理论依据。In order to investigate the drought risk of maize for different areas of Heilongjiang province in China and provide a scientific foundation for maize disaster prevention and disaster management,drought risk index of maize was studied based on the meteorological data and maize growth data during 1971 to 2017 from 44 agricultural meteorological stations.The growth period of maize was divided into two parts based on the growth situation,named early stage(emergence to tasseling)and late-stage(tasseling to maturity),respectively.The natural disaster risk assessment method was applied to analyze the data and crop water deficit index was selected to evaluate the severity of drought.The indices of drought risk assessment model included dangerous,vulnerability,exposure,and emergency response and recovery.The weight coefficients of the 4 indices were induced to define the degree of influence of different indices.The drought risk zone of maize was analyzed based on the drought risk index in Heilongjiang province.The results show that the high values of risk index are distributed in the western of Heilongjiang province and the relatively high values of risk index are distributed in Shuangcheng District of Harbin and Zhaodong County.The southwest of Heilongjiang,including Zhaozhou,Zhaoyuan,Anda is middle risk areas.The low values of risk index are distributed in the Sanjiang plain of eastern Heilongjiang and Heihe,Yichun,Mudanjiang.This study could provide a scientific foundation for maize disaster prevention and disaster management.

关 键 词：干旱 风险评价 风险区划 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] S423