实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响  

Effects of Real Exchange Rate and Tariff Rate Changes on China's Import and Export

作　　者：邹宏元[1] 崔冉 Zou Hongyuan;Cui Ran(School of Finance.Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2020年第2期143-161,共19页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：研究目标:分析和比较实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响。研究方法:基于2002~2014年中国与233个贸易伙伴双边HS6位数编码的进出口数据,运用扩展的引力模型进行实证检验。研究发现:人民币实际汇率贬值(升值)会促进中国出口(进口),关税税率减让可以促进中国进出口,且都存在非对称性影响,后者的促进效果更明显,但波动性较大;实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响在不同贸易伙伴和不同行业之间存在显著差异。研究创新:在统一的计量模型设定下,就关税和汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响进行比较研究,并使用更加细分的贸易数据来缓解“内生性”问题,对出口和进口分别进行研究。研究价值:为中国制定相关贸易政策提供参考。Research Objectives:Analyzing and comparing on the effects of real exchange rate and tariff rate changes on China's import and export.Research Methods:Based on HS 6-digit an extended gravity model to do empirical research.Research Findings:The depreciation(ap preciation)of the real exchange rate of RMB can promote China's export(import),and the reduction of tariff rate can promote China's import and export.The effects of tariff rate are larger than real exchange rate,however,much more volatility.Both of them have asymmet ric effects on China s import and export.Meanwhile,the effects of real exchange rate and tariff rate changes on China's import and export are significantly different between different trading partners and different industries.Research Innovations:Under the setting of unified econometric model,this paper uses more segmented trade data 9 which can alleviate the"endogenous"problem,to make comparative study on the impact of tariff and exchange rate changes on China's import and export trade.Research Vallie:Provide references for China to formulate relevant trade policies.

关 键 词：实际汇率 关税税率 马歇尔-勒纳条件 国际弹性之谜 非对称性 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]