中国存在环境移民吗?——来自空气质量指数测算改革的自然实验  

Are There Environmental Migrants in China?——Natural Experiments from the Reform of Air Quality Index

作　　者：刘欢 席鹏辉[2] LIU Huan;XI Penghui(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,102488 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,100028

出　　处：《经济学动态》2019年第12期38-54,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国产能过剩的化解难题研究:从纳税大户角度的一个激励性解释”(71803190);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“我国应用型高校教师发展动力及其激励机制研究”(18YJC880088);国家社科基金重大项目“基本公共服务均等化建设中的地方财政体制改革研究”(18ZDA096)资助

摘　　要：2013年来中国各城市相继实施了空气质量新标准改革,为研究中国环境移民问题提供了良好的“自然实验”。本文利用2001-2016年城市面板数据,采用双重差分法分析了空气质量指数测算改革对人口迁移的影响。结果表明,采用空气质量新标准后各城市空气质量指数明显提高,城市人口净迁入量出现明显性下降。这一效应在控制户籍制度及公共服务等因素后仍然显著。根据本文的进一步分析,环境移民存在个体社会经济地位的异质性效应,在面对更高的环境污染风险时,受教育程度与收入水平更高人群拥有更强的迁出意愿。本文对中国高质量发展的启示是:地方政府应当重新审视和定位经济增长与环境保护的关系,避免环境污染通过人力资本流失等渠道对地区经济长期发展可能的不利影响。Various cities in China have successively implemented reforms of new air quality standards in 2013,which provide a nice“natural experiment”for studying China s environmental migration.Based on the urban panel data from 2001 to 2016,we use the double difference method to analyze the impact of air quality index reform on population migration.The results show that the city s air quality index has improved significantly after adopting the new air quality standard,and the net migration of urban population has decreased significantly.This effect is still significant after controlling the household registration system and public service.According to the further analysis of this paper,environmental migrants are heterogeneous based on individual socioeconomic status.When facing the higher environmental pollution risks,people with higher education and income levels have stronger willingness to leave.The paper has important implications for China s high-quality development:local governments should re-examine and position the relationship between economic growth and environmental protection in order to avoid the possible adverse effects of environmental pollution on the long-term development of the regional economy due to the loss of human capital.

关 键 词：空气质量新标准 环境移民 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]