海事事故通航环境风险动权量化模型  

Dynamic Weighing Guantification Model of Navigation Environment Risk of Maritime Accident

作　　者：陈蜀喆[1,2] 孙杰 赵辰源 朱全隆 陈恒威 闫志泶 CHEN Shuzhe;SUN Jie;ZHAO Chenyuan;ZHU Quanlong;CHEN Hengwei;YAN Zhixue(Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063

出　　处：《中国航海》2019年第4期18-23,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51809207);国家科技支撑计划(2015BAG20B05);武汉理工大学国家级大学生创新创业训练计划资助(201810497099);(20191049712003)

摘　　要：海事事故通航环境风险动权量化模型研究是基于主观风险评价向客观风险评价的过渡阶段,涉及基于贝叶斯的事故特征通航环境因子量化、主观权重调整和客观权重调整等一系列建模过程。动权模型基于主观权重劣值倾向原则以及样本事故概率影响原则。针对通航环境定权风险评价的不足,从事故特征通航环境因子量化、主客观权重调整和事故案例分析对风险动权量化进行深入研究。研究结果表明:利用该模型进行案例分析可进一步明确航运事故风险机理,最终实现对事故风险预测和控制。The weights of navigation environmental factors in a maritime risk analysis model should be dynamically adjusted towards an objective assessment as the analysis proceeding.The weights of factors are currently fixed based on experience in more or less subjective manner.The proposed modeling,instead,has the mechanism that the weights of environmental factors are chosen based on Bayesian analysis of accident characteristics,and adjusted in principle of objective assessment prior over subjective feeling,and taking sample accident probability into consideration.It proves that the proposed modeling analysis provides the better understanding of risk mechanism in objective assessment of maritime risks.

关 键 词：动权 量化模型 主客观 通航环境 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]