基于线性倾向估计和预测方法的渤海沿海暑期气候舒适度变化研究  

Analysis of Climate Comfort Index Changesin Summer Vacation in the Bohai Sea Coast based on Linear Trend Estimation and Predication Method

作　　者：骆敬新[1] 范文静[1] LUO Jing-xin;FAN Wen-jing(National Marine Data and Information Service,Tianjin 300171,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心

出　　处：《海洋信息》2019年第4期32-36,共5页Marine Information

摘　　要：对1965-2018年渤海沿海暑期(7月和8月)的气温、风、相对湿度及气候舒适度指数进行统计分析,并基于线性倾向估计和预测方法进行了变化趋势分析和预测,结果显示:渤海沿海暑期气候舒适度指数呈增大趋势,偏热的感觉逐渐加大&尤其最近6年气候舒适度指数明显偏高,其中有3年(2013年、2017年和2018年)达到了1级指数,超出了人体感觉舒适、最可接受的级别&文中针对暑期舒适度变差的事实,提醒各方注意及早应对,并给出了部分建议。In this paper,the air temperature,wind,relative humidity and climate comfort index of the Bohai Sea coast in summer vacation(July and August)from 1965 to 2018 are analyzed and predicated based on the linear trend estimation and prediction method.The statistical results show that the climate comfort index of the Bohai Sea coast during summer vacation is increasing,while the feeling of hotness is gradually increasing.In the past six years,the climate comfort index is especially higher,and reached the level 1 index in 2013,2017 and 2018,which is beyond the most acceptable level of comfort.In view of the fact that summer comfort deteriorates,this paper reminds all parties for early response,and gives suggestions accordingly.

关 键 词：渤海沿海 气候舒适度指数 气候变暖 凉爽城市 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P409