无信号路段人行横道人车冲突概率估计  

Pedestrian-Vehicle Conflict Probability Estimation at Uncontrolled Crosswalks

作　　者：马莹莹[1] 温沉 陆思园 MA Yingying;WEN Chen;LU Siyuan(School of Civil Engineering&Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期15-22,共8页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51308227);广东省教育厅特色创新类项目(2017KTSCX005);广东省自然科学基金项目(2018A030313250)

摘　　要：为了估计设计阶段道路行人过街的冲突概率,为行人过街安全评估提供依据,以无信号路段人行横道为研究对象,通过估计机动车与行人出现在人行横道上各位置的概率,建立了一个基于行人和机动车到达流量及运行特征的人车冲突概率估计模型;应用该模型分析了人行横道各断面冲突概率的变化特征。结果表明:行人-机动车冲突概率随行人和机动车到达流量的增大而增大;行人与机动车的冲突概率在一个车道范围内的分布与车辆的横向偏移特征有关;所提出的冲突概率估计模型与实际情况相符。In order to estimate the pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability during the design stage and provide a basis for safety assessment of pedestrian crossings,taking uncontrolled crosswalk as the study objective,a pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability estimation model based on the arrival volume and operation characteristics of pedestrians and vehicles was developed by estimating the probability of vehicles and pedestrians appearing at each section of the variation crosswalk. Then the proposed model was applied to analyze the variation characteristics of the conflict probability of each section of the crosswalk. The results show that: the pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability increases with the increase of pedestrian and vehicle arrival volume;the distribution of pedestrian-vehicle conflict probability within a lane is related to the lateral migration of vehicles;the proposed conflict probability estimation model is consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：交通工程 城市道路 无信号路段人行横道 行人过街概率 冲突概率 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]