基于统计检验的发电机定子线棒绝缘热老化寿命评估  

Thermal Ageing Life Evaluation of Stator Bar Insulation for Generator Based on Statistical Test

作　　者：石颉 王晓剑 张海松 郝万君[1] SHI Jie;WANG Xiaojian;ZHANG Haisong;HAO Wanjun(Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China;China Power Hua Chuang Electricity Technology Research Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200086,China;CGN Advanced Materials Technology(Suzhou)Co.,Ltd.,Taicang 215400,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学,江苏苏州215009 [2]中电华创电力技术研究有限公司,上海200086 [3]中广核高新核材科技(苏州)有限公司,江苏太仓215400

出　　处：《绝缘材料》2019年第12期46-52,共7页Insulating Materials

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51477109)

摘　　要：为了将统计检验的方法应用于发电机定子线棒绝缘热老化寿命评估,应用Shapiro-Wilk检验、方差齐性分析以及回归方程的显著性检验等方法分别对试验数据正态性、Arrhenius模型适用性以及回归方程显著性与相关性等方面进行了统计检验。并通过算例分析进一步说明了寿命评估的计算过程、回归方程的获取、显著性检验以及Arrhenius模型适用性检验的实际过程。结果表明:在对发电机定子线棒绝缘进行热老化寿命评估时,应对试验数据进行正态性检验、方差齐性分析以及回归方程的显著性检验。通过方差齐性分析能够分析出不同应力水平下是否引入新的老化机理,进而提高寿命评估的准确性。The thermal ageing life of stator bar insulation for generator was evaluated by statistical test method, and the normality, applicability of Arrhenius model, and significance and correlation of regression equation of the test data were verified by the Shapiro-Wilk test, variance homogeneity analysis, and significance test of regression equation. Finally, the calculation process of life evaluation, acquisition of regression equation, significance test, and applicability test of Arrhenius model were further illustrated by example analysis. The results show that when the thermal ageing life of stator bar insulation for generator is evaluated, the test data should be carried out the normality test, variance homogeneity analysis, and significance test of regression equation. The variance homogeneity analysis can be used to analyze whether a new ageing mechanism is introduced under different stress level, and the accuracy of life evaluation is improved.

关 键 词：汽轮发电机 线棒绝缘 热老化 寿命评估 分布检验 回归分析 方差齐性检验 

分 类 号：TM303.4[电气工程—电机]