基于GIS的南水北调东线山东段区域洪灾风险区划  

Regional flood disaster risk zoning in Shandong reach of Eastern route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on GIS

作　　者：王复生 李传奇[1] 张焱炜 李继政 WANG Fusheng;LI Chuanqi;ZHANG Yanwei;LI Jizheng(School of Civil Engineering,Shandong University,Ji’nan 25QQ61,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学土建与水利学院

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2019年第6期45-53,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAB07B00);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2017MEE006)~~

摘　　要：针对南水北调东线山东段区域的防汛需求,主要从洪水灾害的危险性、敏感性和易损性3方面建立洪水灾害风险区划模型,综合考虑研究区域的汛期暴雨日数、暴雨强度、高程、高程标准差、河网密度、湖区缓冲区、GDP、人口密度、土地利用类型等9项影响指标,用蒙特卡罗法辅助层次分析法分析确定指标权重值,通过ArcGIS的地图代数功能对各个指标图层归一化处理,计算得到研究区域的洪水灾害风险区划图。区划结果显示:鲁南片的高风险区位于南四湖周边区域、枣庄市局部地区;鲁北片的高风险区位于聊城城区、黄河以北沿线;胶东片的高风险区位于济南市周边以及半岛东部局部地区。通过与历史洪涝灾情资料进行比对,发现上述区划结果符合灾害发生的实际情况,区划结果对南水北调东线山东段洪水防治和决策管理具有重要的参考价值。In view of the flood control demand of the East Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Shandong area,the flood risk zoning model was established based on the fundamental principles of hazard,sensitivity and vulnerability of flood disasters.Nine influencing indices such as rainstorm days in the flood season,rainstorm intensity,elevation,standard deviation of elevation,river network density,and buffer zone of lakes,gross domestic product,population density,and land use type were comprehensively considered.The weights of indices were determined by means of the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)with the auxiliary of Monte Carlo method.The cartographic algebra function in ArcGIS was adopted to perform the normalization processing of the various indicator layers.After calculating and mapping process,the risk zoning map of flood disasters of the study area was obtained.The results showed that the high-risk areas of south,north and east Shandong were located in the surrounding regions of Nansi Lake and some local areas in Zaozhuang City,Liaocheng City and the north side of the Yellow River,the vicinity of Jinan City and part of regions of the east peninsula.Compared with the historical data of flood disasters,the above zoning results proved to accord with the actual situation of the study area,which showed that the results have important referencing values for flood prevention and decision management in Shandong section of the East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.

关 键 词：南水北调东线工程 风险区划 GIS技术 蒙特卡罗法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TV91[水利工程—水利水电工程]