我国国际收支格局演变及风险评估  

Evolution and Risk Assessment of International Balance of Payment Structure in China

作　　者：谢伟[1] 柳光程 信召阳 Xie Wei;Liu Guangcheng;Xin Zhaoyang(PBC Jinan Branch,Shandong Jinan 250021)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行济南分行

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2019年第12期53-57,共5页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：近年来,我国国际收支结构进入调整变换期,经常账户顺差规模呈持续下降趋势,非储备性质金融账户波动性加大,但中长期看,货物贸易顺差不会出现真正的反转,资本与金融账户顺逆差也是可以接受的。各项指标显示我国国际收支结构演变中的风险总体可控,但短期资本大进大出会放大跨境资金流动风险,国际收支结构演变中也存在一定的宏观经济金融风险。因此,需要从维护人民币汇率稳定、完善跨境资金流动管理、平衡“引进来”与“走出去”、推动国内经济高质量发展等方面加以有效防范和应对。In recent years,China's international balance of payments structure has entered a period of adjustment and transformation.The size of the current account surplus has continued to decline,and the volatility of non-reserve financial accounts has increased.However,in the medium-and-long term,the trade surplus of goods cannot turn out to be reversal and the capital and financial account balances are also acceptable.The risk of the evolution of China's balance of payments structure is generally controllable.However,the flow of the large amount of short-term capital can increase the risk of cross-border fund flow.And there is certain macroeconomic and financial risk during the transition period of the international balance of payments structure.Therefore,it is necessary to effectively prevent and respond to risks from the maintenance of the RMB exchange rate stability,the improvement of cross-border capital flow management,the balance of FDI and ODI,and the promotion of high-quality development of the domestic economy.

关 键 词：国际收支结构 风险评估 经常账户 资本与金融账户 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]