人口老龄化、制造业转型升级与经济高质量发展——基于中介效应模型  

Population Aging,Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade,and High-quality Economic Development—Based on Mediating Effect Model

作　　者：何冬梅 刘鹏[3] HE Dongmei;LIU Peng(Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;Jiangsu Open University,Nanjing 210013;Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 510320)

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,南京210093 [2]江苏开放大学商学院,南京210013 [3]广东财经大学经济学院,广州510320

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2020年第1期3-20,共18页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球创新链视角下的中国生产性服务业内生性发展机制研究”(17CJY045);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目“创新驱动、产业结构优化与经济高质量发展研究”(2018SJA0542);江苏开放大学“十三五”规划课题“产业链视角下江苏养老产业区域协调发展研究”(17SSW-R-Q-015)

摘　　要：中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。不断加速、深化的人口老龄化会对转型时期的经济发展产生何种影响?进一步地,在制造业转型升级的发展战略下,能否通过制造业结构的合理化和高度化的中介效应,发挥人口老龄化对经济高质量发展的正外部性?本文选取2000—2017年中国省级面板数据,利用两步系统广义矩估计进行分析发现:人口老龄化对经济高质量发展具有显著负效应,且主要通过“倒逼机制”使得制造业转型升级发挥正向的部分中介效应,缓解该抑制作用。分时期看,2000—2008年,不管是制造业结构合理化还是高度化,均表现出负向的部分中介效应,加剧了老龄化对经济高质量发展的阻碍作用,2009—2017年,情况相反。分区域看,两区域的老龄化都对经济高质量发展产生负效应,且东部地区受影响的程度小于中西部地区;制造业结构合理化和高度化的部分中介效应均存在,但是在影响程度和作用方向上存在区域差异。China s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth phase to a high-quality development phase.Under the background of accelerating and deepening population aging,this paper focuses on the impact on the economic development in the transitional period,and further,under the development strategy of manufacturing transformation and upgrade,whether the positive externality of population aging to high-quality economic development can be brought into full play through the mediating effect of rationalization and upgrade of manufacturing structure.Thus,this paper selected the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2017 and carried out the dynamic panel analysis by using the two-step SYS-GMM.The results are shown as follows.Firstly,population aging has a significant negative effect on high-quality economic development,which makes the transformation and upgrade of manufacturing play a positive partial mediating effect through the anti-driving mechanism,alleviating the inhibition.Secondly,in terms of time,from 2000 to 2008,both the rationalization and the upgrade of manufacturing structure show a negative partial mediating effect,aggravating the impediment of aging to high-quality economic development,While from 2009 to 2017,the opposite was true.Thirdly,in terms of regions,the aging of both regions has a negative effect on high-quality economic development,and the eastern region is less affected than the central and western regions.Moreover,some mediating effect of rationalization and upgrade of manufacturing structure exists,however,there are regional differences in the degree and direction of impact.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 制造业转型升级 经济高质量发展 中介效应 系统广义矩估计 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济] F404[经济管理—国民经济]