贸易开放度与经济高质量发展的互动效应——基于中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的实证研究  

The Interactive Effect of Trade Openness and High Quality Economic Development——An Empirical Study Based on China and Countries Along the “Maritime Silk Road”

作　　者：余思勤[1] 孙司琦 Yu Siqin;Sun Siqi(Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《河南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第1期71-78,共8页Journal of Henan Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71601113);国家社会科学基金(17BGL015)

摘　　要：本文利用1990-2017年中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家34个国家的数据构建面板向量自回归模型,通过GMM估计、脉冲响应函数分析了中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的贸易开放度与经济增长之间的直接关系和间接关系。研究结果表明,中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家的贸易开放度、贸易竞争力和人力资本多数处于中等阶段。贸易开放度和经济发展之间存在双向对称但不显著的关系。贸易开放度的提高既可以直接推动经济发展,也可以凭借人力资本间接促进一国经济发展,而经济发展通过贸易竞争力间接促进贸易开放度的提高。中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家贸易开放对经济增长的积极作用大于中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家经济增长对贸易开放度的推动作用。因此,我国应进一步扩大开放,加速高端要素流动,推动高端服务贸易和高端产业的发展,提高我国经济发展质量。Based on the data of China and 34 countries along the maritime Silk Road from 1990 to 2017,this paper constructs a panel vector autoregressive model,and analyzes the direct and indirect relationship between trade openness and economic growth of China and countries along the maritime Silk Road through GMM Estimation and impulse response function.The results show that most of the trade openness,trade competitiveness and human capital between China and the countries along the“maritime Silk Road”are in the middle stage.There is a two-way symmetrical but not significant relationship between trade openness and economic development.The improvement of trade openness can not only directly promote economic development,but also indirectly promote a country’s economic development with human capital,and economic development indirectly promotes the improvement of trade openness through trade competitiveness.The positive effect of trade opening between China and countries along the“maritime Silk Road”on economic growth is greater than that between China and countries along the“maritime Silk Road”.Therefore,China should further expand its opening up,accelerate the flow of high-end elements,promote the development of high-end service trade and high-end industries,and improve the quality of China’s economic development.

关 键 词：“海上丝绸之路” 贸易开放度 贸易竞争力 人力资本 经济增长 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]