“小而无当”但“过犹不及”:人口规模与城市生产率的关系研究  

“Small but not appropriate” while “beyond but not better”:a research on the relationship between population size and urban productivity

作　　者：向国成 江鑫 XIANG Guocheng;JIANG Xin(School of Economics andTrade,Hunan University of Technology andBusiness,Changsha410205,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin300071,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410205 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2019年第6期115-126,共12页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(11JZD018);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473134);国家社会科学基金一般项目(18BRK032);南开大学习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想专题计划博士研究生科研基金项目(2017);南开大学经济学院博士研究生科研创新基金项目(2018)

摘　　要：首先,从理论上阐明城市生产率随着其常住人口规模的扩张呈倒"N"型的变化趋势,这表明当特大、超大城市人口规模超过城市生产率最大化所对应的最优城市规模时,应该引导该类城市的过多人口以及其他小城市(镇)人口转移到平均生产率更高的大中城市,这有利于实现既定劳动力资源约束下的空间优化配置,推动一个国家或地区整体生产率实现最优化均衡增长。其次,利用中国2005-2013年283个地级及以上城市面板数据,通过固定效应模型和工具变量法,证实了上述理论假说。此外,运用面板门槛模型研究发现,城市常住人口平均生产率的变化趋势存在着人口规模的双门槛特征,门槛值分别为33.4万人和475.48万人,并且对城市人口规模分组进行的计量回归检验结果,也证明了城市生产率的变化趋势与倒"N"型的研究结论吻合。研究结论表明,我国大部分地级城市人口规模处于这两个门槛值之间的偏下位置,也即处在城市人口平均生产率的上升阶段,但又普遍发展不足,故大力发展作为城市体系主体组成部分的中等规模地级城市正当其时。This paper theoretically expounds that the urban productivity presents a variation tendency of inverted"N"shape along with the expansion of permanent population size,which indicates that the excessive population of such cities and the population of other small cities(towns)should be transferred to larger and medium-sized cities with higher average productivity when the population size of a supercity or megacity exceeds the optimal city size corresponding to the maximum urban productivity.Such a practice is conducive to realizing the spatial optimal allocation under the constraints of established labor resources,and thus promoting the overall productivity of a country or region to achieve the optimal balanced growth.The panel data of 283 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2005 to 2013,as well as fixed effect model and instrumental variable method is used to verify the above propositional hypothesis.In addition,the panel threshold model method is used to find that the variation tendency of the average productivity of permanent urban population has a double threshold characteristic of population size with the threshold values of 334,000 and 4,754,800 respectively.An econometric regression test is made of urban population size grouping,which also proves that the variation tendency of urban productivity is consistent with the research conclusion of inverted"N"shape.For this reason,this paper shows that the population size of most prefecture-level cities in our country is in the lower position between the two threshold values,that is,it is at the ascent stage of average productivity of urban population,but it is generally underdeveloped.Therefore,it is time to vigorously develop the medium-sized prefecture-level cities as the main body of urban system.

关 键 词：城市人口规模 地级市 城市生产率 倒“N”型 人口规模门槛值 

分 类 号：F019.3[经济管理—政治经济学]