气候变化下山美水库流域未来径流量变化  

Study on Runoff in Shanmei Reservoir Basin in the Future of Climate Change

作　　者：吴丽娜 陈莹[1,2,3,4] 陈兴伟[1,2,3,4] 刘梅冰[1,2,3,4] 高路 杨博[1,2,3] 卢彬彬 WU Lina;CHEN Ying;CHEN Xingwei;LIU Meibing;GAO Lu;YANG Bo;LU Binbin(Institute of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;School of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;State Key Laboratory for Subtropical Mountain Ecology of the Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China;Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters,Fuzhou 350007,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350007 [2]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007 [3]福建师范大学湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福州350007 [4]福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州350007

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2019年第4期18-22,35,共6页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项(2018R1034-3)

摘　　要：山美水库流域作为泉州市主要的供水源地,其水资源量的变化将对泉州市的社会经济发展产生重要影响。利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-LR、MIROC-SEM-CHEM、NoerESM1-M)在典型浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0)下气候预估结果,结合HSPF水文模型,开展了2020-2039年山美水库流域未来径流量变化研究。结果表明:(1)预估的年平均降水量较基准期(1991-2010年)增加4.30%,平均日最高温度和日最低温度分别增加2.34℃和2.09℃。(2)从月径流量来看,1-5月份径流显著的增加,6-8月份呈显著的下降趋势,此外夏季径流量的变化幅度大于其他季节。(3)未来灾害发生率达到53.13%,洪涝发生的概率大于干旱。(4)未来降水和气温以及径流预测中由GCMs引起的不确定性要大于RCPs。As the water supply source of Quanzhou city, the change of water resource in Shanmei Reservoir Basin will cause significant impacts on its economy and society. Using 5 Global Climate Models(GFDL-ESM2 M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5 A-LR,MIROC-SEM-CHEM、NoerESM1-M)of CMIP5 in RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP6.0,and combining HSPF water model, the effects of the future climate change on the basin’s runoff(2020-2039) were studied. The results show that(1) compared to the baseline period, estimated average annual precipitation will increase by 4.3%;daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature increased by 2.34 ℃ and 2.09 ℃, respectively.(2) the runoff will increase from January to May and decrease from June to August. The degree of variability in summer is larger than other seasons.(3)the frequency of future disaster is from 47% to 60%,and the frequency of flood is bigger than drought.(4)in the prediction of climate, precipitation and runoff, the uncertainty caused by GCMs is larger than RCPs.

关 键 词：气候变化 径流响应 不确定性 山美水库流域 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]