基于弹性估计的“一带一路”水泥产能合作潜力预测:2019—2028  

An Appraisement of the Cooperation Potential of Cement Production Capacity of OBOR Countries Based on Elasticity Estimates:2019—2028

作　　者：孙泽生 陈楠楠[3] SUN Ze-heng;CHEN Nan-nan(School of Finance and Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200434,China;The Research Center of Public Policy, Zhejiang University of Science & Technology, Hangzhou 310023,China;Ningbo Co.Ltd, Zhejiang Materials Industry Chemical Group, Ningbo 315100,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200434 [2]浙江科技学院公共政策研究中心,浙江杭州310023 [3]浙江物产化工集团宁波有限公司,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第6期48-57,共10页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“基于微观企业视角的‘一带一路’国际产能合作风险防范研究”(17BJY012)

摘　　要：水泥等基建关联产业发展和产能合作是支撑基础设施互联互通和落实“一带一路”倡议的重要内容。基于弹性估计和情境模拟方法首次测算了截至2028年18个主要“一带一路”沿线国的水泥产能合作潜力。研究发现,俄罗斯、越南、马来西亚和哈萨克斯坦均有500万吨以上的水泥产能合作潜力,研究期末越南和马来西亚分别达到2800万吨和1100万吨的合作潜力水平;格鲁吉亚、罗马尼亚、巴基斯坦、波兰和捷克到研究期末有约100~350万吨的合作潜力,但巴基斯坦要到2024年方有正向的产能合作潜力;白俄罗斯、土耳其、克罗地亚和斯洛伐克等国产能合作潜力为负,土耳其和立陶宛仅在研究期末其合作潜力方可能为正;18个主要沿线国的水泥产能合作潜力总量从2019年的平均1904.49万吨上升至2023年和2028年的6014.58万吨和7255.74万吨。The development of infrastructure related industries like cement and the cooperation of their production capacity are critical to support the infrastructure interconnectivity and implement the important content in the OBOR(One Belt and One Road)Initiative.By means of elasticity estimates and scenario simulation,this paper predicts the cooperation potential of cement production capacity by 2028 in 18 major OBOR countries..The findings show that:each of Russia,Vietnam,Malaysia and Kazakhstan has got over 5 million tons of cooperation potential for cement production capacity,and by the end of the research period,that of Vietnam and Malaysia would reach to the level of 28 million tons and 11 million tons respectively.Georgia,Romania,Pakistan,Poland and the Czech Republic have got about 1-3.5 million tons of potential for cooperation each by the end of the research period,and Pakistan will not have a positive cooperation potential for production capacity until 2024.Though the cooperation potential for production capacity among Belarus,Turkey,Croatia and Slovakia is negative,that of Turkey and Lithuania may turn to positive at the end of the period.The total cooperative potential for cement production capacity in 18 major countries along the road increases from an average of 19.0449 million tons in 2019 to 60.1458 million tons in 2023 and 72.5574 million tons in 2028.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 水泥行业 国际产能合作 潜力预测 

分 类 号：F426.31[经济管理—产业经济]