沙特阿拉伯石油国家成本分析与应用  

State breakeven oil cost analysis and application in Saudi Arabia

作　　者：蒋立[1,2] 闫强[1,2] 柳群义[1,2] 张云龙 韩雅文[4] 路畅 JIANG Li;YAN Qiang;LIU Qunyi;ZHANG Yunlong;HAN Yawen;LU Chang(MNR Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Resource Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Research Center of Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Institute of Mineral Resources,Beijing Geological Research Institute of Nuclear Industry,Beijing 100037,China;School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100086,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所自然资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [3]核工业北京地质研究院矿产资源研究所,北京100029 [4]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [5]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100086

出　　处：《中国矿业》2020年第1期46-51,共6页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：地质矿产调查评价项目“国家重点关注矿种的资源形势动态分析与安全评估预警”资助(编号：DD20190675);地质矿产调查评价项目“中国水资源生态配置及全球战略”资助(编号：DD20190652);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目资助(编号：41702123)

摘　　要：分析国际油价走势时,需要考虑石油供给端的成本。不同条件下的盈亏平衡成本反映了不同的需求,石油完全成本支撑了石油勘探企业盈亏平衡,高度依赖石油收入的产油国的"国家成本"是产油国维持财政平衡所需的油价。从理论上分析石油国家成本,一方面可以分析产油国供给行为,进而预测油价走势;另一方面也有助于解读产油国政策走向及改革行为,预测可能的政治与财政危机。但在实际应用中,还需要将石油国家成本与一国的外汇储备、汇率变化、财政政策、地缘政治等多种因素综合考虑。本文分析计算了沙特阿拉伯2001~2017年的石油国家成本,结果表明,自2009年以来,该国石油国家成本不断增加,至2014年以后的新一轮油价下跌周期,政府收紧开支逐渐见到成效,石油国家成本不断降低,与国际油价间的差距不断减小,说明缩减开支取得了一定效果,石油国家成本不断降低,也体现出了石油国家成本随着市场的弹性变化。When analyzing the trend of international oil price,we need to consider the cost of supply.Breakeven costs under different conditions reflect different needs.The total cost of oil exploration and development supports the breakeven of oil enterprises.The state breakeven oil cost of oil producing countries is an important indicator to measure whether the country can keep economic and social stability.Analysis of state breakeven oil cost can analyze the supply behavior of oil-producing countries and thus predict the price trend,also helps to interpret the policy trend and reform behavior of oil-producing countries and predict the possible political and fiscal crisis.However,in practical application,it is necessary to take the state breakeven oil cost into comprehensive consideration with a country’s foreign exchange reserves,exchange rate changes,fiscal policies,geopolitics and other factors.This paper analyzes and calculates the oil national cost of Saudi Arabia,the results show that since 2009,the state breakeven oil cost of Saudi Arabia has been increasing,and after the new cycle of oil price decline in 2014,Saudi Arabia’s tightening spending has gradually shown results that the oil national cost of Saudi Arabia has been decreasing,and the gap with the international oil price has been narrowing.

关 键 词：石油国家成本 财政盈余 非石油收入 盈亏平衡价格 供给行为 财政政策 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]