经济下行压力下凸显韧性,结构调整加速推进——2019年经济形势回顾与展望  

Economy Shows Resilience under Downward Pressure and Economic Restructuring is Speeded up--Economic Review and Outlook in 2019

作　　者：温建东 李永宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国对外经济贸易大学金融系 [2]天津工业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2019年第12期5-9,共5页China Money

基　　金：天津哲学社会科学规划项目“新常态下供给需求调控相结合的目标区间管理研究”阶段性成果,项目号:TJYY15-021。

摘　　要：2019年,中美贸易战、英国脱欧、地缘政治等全球不确定性因素增多,我国经济下行压力持续加大。但另一方面,短期经济运行存在积极向好的迹象和趋势,国内外制度性结构性改革正在加速重塑长期发展动力。展望2020年,应对短期经济压力需要适度加大逆周期调节,通货膨胀将回归稳定,人民币对美元汇率弹性增大有利于国际收支平衡和货币政策有效性,但密切关注出现局部金融风险的可能。In 2019,global uncertainties such as the China-US trade friction,Brexit and geopolitics are on the rise,and thedownward pressure on China's economy continues to increase.Yet on the other hand,there have been positive signsand trends in China’s economy in the short-term,and institutional and structural reforms both at home and abroad havebeen accelerating the reshaping of long-term development momentum.Looking into 2020,China need to strengthencountercyclical adjustment to respond to short-term economic pressure and the in flation will return to stability.Theincreased flexibility of RMB exchange rate against the USD will be conducive to the international balance of paymentsand the e ffectiveness of monetary policy.However,close attentions need to be paid to the financial risks in speci ficareas.

关 键 词：经济下行压力 国际收支平衡 结构性改革 金融风险 货币政策有效性 逆周期调节 地缘政治 英国脱欧 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]