国际集装箱班轮运输市场：存在较大变数  

Focus:market view of 2020(Ⅰ)

作　　者：张永锋 龚建伟 

机构地区：[1]上海国际航运研究中心

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2020年第1期32-37,8,共7页Maritime China

摘　　要：从市场长周期来看,无论是从世界经济整体增长还是从船队供给同比增速的视角考量,国际集装箱班轮市场都已经步入“谷底-恢复”的调整阶段,只是当前的恢复力度并不明显。从当前市场诸多指标来看,经贸端、产业端、需求端呈现有所回调的态势,加上超大型集装箱船舶进一步交付与新造大船订单的冲击,预计2020年国际集装箱班轮市场运费略有下滑或回调概率较大。但是,考虑到低硫油政策导致的船舶供给减少、运费成本上升及低硫油附加费征收等因素影响,集装箱运费也许会出现短期阶段性大幅提升,甚至会改变整个市场的低迷走势。因此,2020年国际集装箱班轮运输市场运费同比变化存在较大变数。Despite the failure of the shipping market in 2019 to sustain the recovery seen in 2017 and 2018,industry confidence has gradually recovered.Everyone is judging and predicting what the market will do in 2020:some are optimistic,others are cautious,each with its own logic and reason.Our magazine will publish two issues of the analysis article of shipping and relevant section in succession in order to cause everybody to think to shipping market and discuss.International container liner shipping market:a big variable.It is estimated that the freight rate of international container liner market in 2020 will decline slightly or be adjusted back.However,considering the reduction in ship supply caused by the low sulfur oil policy,the increase in freight cost,the surcharge on low sulfur oil and other factors,the container freight may be significantly increased in a short period of time,or even change the depressed trend of the whole market.International bulk dry bulk transportation market:steady recovery.We believe that the dry bulk market will still recover steadily in 2020,which may be in the form of low season is not light and high season is not flourishing.

关 键 词：供给减少 集装箱班轮 运费 需求端 超大型集装箱船舶 附加费 回调 变数 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]