2020年跨太平洋航线及亚欧航线前瞻  

Look forward to the Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe lines in 2020

作　　者：陶润元 

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2020年第1期64-65,9,共3页Maritime China

摘　　要：预计至少在2020年上半年,跨太平洋东行航线的需求将呈疲弱态势,班轮公司保持稳定经营的唯一选择可能是像2019年那样控制运力。需求放缓带来的运价压力,叠加限硫令实施导致的运营成本大幅上涨,班轮公司计划通过合同货物的燃油价格调整因素(BAF)和即期市场的低硫附加费来转移这些成本。2020年各班轮公司面临的挑战日益加重。德路里下调了对2020年全球集装箱需求的预期,从3.9%的增长预期,下调至目前的2.6%。Trans-Pacific ocean carriers are entering the new year with twoimportant tasks in mind: deciding what level of low-sulfur fuelsurcharge the market will bear, and how much they will be able toincrease rates during annual service contract negotiations this spring— if at all. With the likelihood of another year of slow growth ahead in the largest US trade lane,carriers’ only option to stayafloat may be to repeat the tightcapacity management that kepta floor on rates in 2019. Earlyindications are that this will bethe carriers’ strategy in 2020.Fuel will play a critical role inocean carrier pricing this yearfollowing the Jan. 1 impositionof the IMO 2020 mandate,which caps the sulfur content of bunker fuel at 0.5 percent, downfrom 3.5 percent previously.

关 键 词：班轮公司 即期市场 燃油价格 亚欧航线 运价 集装箱 运营成本 跨太平洋 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]