电力系统负荷建模研究综述与展望  

Review and prospects for load modeling of power system

作　　者：赵静波 鞠平[2,3] 施佳君 秦川[2,3] ZHAO Jingbo;JU Ping;SHI Jiajun;QIN Chuan(Jiangsu Electric Power Company Research Institute,Nanjing 210008,China;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Renewable Energy Power Generation Technology Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,江苏南京210008 [2]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100 [3]河海大学可再生能源发电技术教育部工程研究中心,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期87-94,共8页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51407060);江苏省电力公司科技项目(J2018054);111引智计划项目(B14022)。

摘　　要：负荷建模研究是电力系统运行与控制中的基础性问题,既具有非常重要的理论意义,又具有十分显著的实用价值。在回顾已有负荷建模成果的基础上,归纳了负荷模型结构和模型参数的获取方法,整理了负荷模型应用现状,并总结了现有负荷建模方法的不足;然后分析了负荷建模的发展趋势,包括负荷特性重大变化对建模工作的新挑战、电网结构变化对建模工作的新需求和大数据、人工智能快速发展带来的新机遇;最后将未来负荷建模工作总结为解决模型结构的“定性正确”和模型参数的“定量准确”两步走问题,提出建立考虑主动负荷的广义综合负荷模型,并借助人工智能技术,综合采用多种在线建模方法,构建“分类分时”负荷模型数据库,建立负荷建模的长效机制。Load modeling is a fundamental issue in the operation and control of power system,which has very important significance in theory and practice.First,this study reviews existing load modeling achievements,provides an overview of existing load models and methodologies for parameters estimation,identifies current industry practice on load modeling for power system,and summarizes the shortcomings of existing load modeling theory.Then,future prospects are analyzed,including new challenges and new requirements for modeling work resulted from major changes in load characteristics and grid structure,and new opportunities with the rapid development of artificial intelligence and big data.Finally,the future work is summarized as a two-step problem that is“qualitative correctness”of model structure and“quantitative accuracy”of model parameters.The structure of a generalized synthesis load model is proposed considering the active load.To establish the long-term mechanism of load modeling,a“type classified and time classified”load model database,taking the advantage of a variety of online modeling methods as well as the artificial intelligence algorithm,is proposed.

关 键 词：负荷建模 广义综合负荷模型 模型结构 模型参数 主动负荷 人工智能 综述 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]