失效树模型在弧形钢闸门可靠性评估中的应用  

Application of fault tree model In reliability evaluation of steel radial gate

作　　者：杨娟娟 洪伟 吴振 杜子立 王颖[1] 林立旗 YANG Juan-juan;HONG Wei;WU Zhen

机构地区：[1]水利部水工金属结构质量检验测试中心,河南郑州450044 [2]水利部综合事业局,北京100053 [3]山东省水利科学研究院,山东济南250013

出　　处：《水电站机电技术》2020年第1期58-61,64,71,共6页Mechanical & Electrical Technique of Hydropower Station

摘　　要：针对影响弧形钢闸门可靠性的因素存在较大不确定性,本文引入失效树分析方法,建立了弧形钢闸门结构体系可靠性评估模型。该模型根据弧形钢闸门自身结构原因及运行条件,确定了影响弧形钢闸门可靠性的最小割集。通过对最小割集事件概率计算,得到弧形钢闸门可靠运行的概率,在理想条件下换算得到弧形钢闸门的可靠度指标,从而实现对弧形钢闸门可靠性评估。实例计算结果表明:某二级水电站弧形钢闸门可靠度指标为3.09,与极限状态值相比,认为是较为安全的;该计算结果得出的结论与该弧形闸门安全检测结论较为吻合,一定程度上验证了评估方法的正确性和实用性。Considering relatively high uncertainty of factors affecting the reliability of steel radial gate,this paper introduces the fault tree analysis method,establishing a reliability evaluation model of steel radial gate structure system.Based on the structure and operating conditions of steel radial gate,the model defines the minimum cut set that affect the reliability of steel radial gate.By calculating the probability of the minimum cut set event,the probability of reliable operation of steel radial gate is obtained and then converted into the reliability indicator of steel radial gate under ideal conditions,thus realizing the reliability evaluation of steel radial gate.The example calculation results show that the reliability indicator of steel radial gate of XXX II Hydropower Station is 3.09,which is considered to be safer compared to the values in limit states.This conclusion is in good agreement with the safety testing conclusion of radial gate,verifying the correctness and practicability of the evaluation method to a certain extent.

关 键 词：弧形钢闸门 失效树模型 可靠性 

分 类 号：TV663.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]