我国甲醇及其下游产品市场分析与展望  

Analysis and Prospect of Methanol and Its Downstream Market in China

作　　者：朱琼芳 Zhu Qiongfang(Sedin Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan Shanxi 030032,China;China National Information Center of Coal Chemical Industry,Taiyuan Shanxi 030032,China)

机构地区：[1]赛鼎工程有限公司 [2]全国煤化工信息总站

出　　处：《煤化工》2019年第6期52-57,共6页Coal Chemical Industry

摘　　要：分析了我国甲醇生产、消费情况,结果表明,我国甲醇行业发展态势良好:2018年、2019年上半年甲醇产量、消费量增速(同比)均在18.5%以上;价格方面,2018年前10个月甲醇价格高位运行,11月甲醇价格暴跌近1000元/t,之后一直处于低位运行;下游产品需求方面,煤(甲醇)制烯烃和甲醇燃料等新兴需求占甲醇消费总量的67%,甲醛、MTBE、二甲醚、醋酸等传统下游消费萎缩至33%。从甲醇下游各产品出发,分析了未来我国甲醇市场发展走势:甲醇行业增速将放缓,未来甲醇市场增长点主要在煤(甲醇)制烯烃和甲醇燃料领域,传统下游需求增长有限。The production and consumption of methanol in China was analyzed.The results showed that the development trend of methanol industry in China was good.The growth rates of methanol production and consumption in 2018 and the first half of 2019 were both over 18.5%.The price of methanol in the first ten months of 2018 ran at a high level,and then dropped by nearly 1000 RMB per ton in November.Since then,the methanol price had been running at a low level.In terms of downstreamproduct demand,coal(methanol)to olefin and methanol fuel accounted for 67%of the total methanol consumption,while the traditional downstream consumption from formaldehyde,MTBE,dimethyl ether and acetic acid shrunk to 33%.The development trend of China’s methanol market in the future was analyzed from the perspective of methanol downstream products.The growth rate of China忆s methanol industry will slow down,and the growth of methanol market in the future is mainly in the fields of coal(methanol)to olefin and methanol fuel,while the growth of traditional downstreamdemand is limited.

关 键 词：甲醇 市场 甲醇制烯烃 甲醇燃料 甲醛 MTBE 二甲醚 醋酸 

分 类 号：TQ223.121[化学工程—有机化工]