城市经济增长对房地产开发投资依赖度的时空演变趋势——基于281个城市面板数据的空间计量分析  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Trend of Dependence of Urban Economic Growth on Real Estate Investment——A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of 281 Cities in China

作　　者：赵伟[1,2] 栾玉蓉 Zhao Wei;Luan Yurong(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学中国住房保障研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2020年第2期92-100,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“供给侧结构性改革与发展新动力研究”(项目编号:16ZDA006)

摘　　要：本文基于2003~2017年全国281个地级及以上城市的数据,探究地区经济增长对房地产投资依赖度的变化,并运用空间杜宾模型,对房地产投资拉动经济增长的区域特征及其空间溢出效应进行探讨。结果显示:我国大部分城市的经济增长对房地产投资的依赖度仍然较大,不仅存在自身的时间惯性依赖,还存在近邻空间依赖。房地产投资通过两种方式来影响地方经济增长:(1)直接增加本地区房地产投资;(2)通过邻近区域房地产投资的空间外溢的间接作用。从时间上来讲,地方经济增长对房地产投资的依赖性随着时间的推移逐渐增加;从空间上来讲,地方经济对房地产投资的依赖度存在区域异质性,对直接作用依赖度最大的是东部地区城市,对间接作用依赖度最大的是中部地区城市。为了减轻地方经济对房地产投资的依赖,政府应根据各区域的房地产投资特征来制定相关政策,以免对经济造成较大冲击。Based on the data of 281 cities in China from 2003 to 2017,this paper explores how the dependence of regional economy on real estate investment changes,and explores the regional characteristics and spatial spillover effect of real estate invest⁃ment on economic growth by means of spatial Durbin model.The results show that the economic growth of most of cities in China still depends heavily on real estate investment.It not only has its own time inertia dependence,but also has neighboring space depen⁃dence.Real estate investment affects local economic growth in two ways.One is to increase the real estate investment in the region directly,and the other is through the indirect effect of spatial spillover of real estate investment in neighboring regions.In terms of time,the dependence of local economic growth on real estate investment gradually increases.From the spatial point of view,the dependence of local economy on real estate investment has regional heterogeneity.The cities in the eastern region have the greatest dependence on direct effects,while the cities in the central region have the greatest dependence on indirect effects.In order to re⁃duce the dependence of local economy on real estate investment,the government should formulate relevant policies according to the characteristics of real estate investment in each region to avoid making a large impact on the economy.

关 键 词：房地产投资 经济增长 空间溢出效应 空间杜宾模型 时间维度 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F124.1