中国财政政策效果解读——基于附加适应性预期IS-LM模型分析  

An Interpretation of Effect of Fiscal Policies in China——An Analysis of IS-LM Model Based on Adaptive Expectations

作　　者：涂涛涛[1] 李霞 TU Taotao;LI Xia(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《长春大学学报》2020年第1期1-6,共6页Journal of Changchun University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503092;71461010701);中国国家留学基金委项目(201806765037)

摘　　要：在动态IS-LM模型中引入了适应性预期的假设,并利用GAMS仿真模拟软件对财政政策效果进行了模拟分析。模拟结果表明:当经济人满足适应性预期的假设前提时,厂商通过调整价格对超额需求进行调节的机制会失效,并且此时边际消费倾向的变动对财政政策效果没有显著的影响;随着投资利率弹性的逐渐减小,财政政策的效果会随之逐渐加强。因此,政策制定者应该充分考虑预期对于政策效果的影响,并重视投资对国民经济的影响。The adaptive expectation hypothesis is introduced into the dynamic IS-LM model,and the effect of fiscal policies is analyzed by using GAMS simulation software. The results show that when the economic men satisfy the hypothesis of adaptive expectations,the manufacturers will fail to adjust the excess demand by adjusting price,and at the same time,the change of marginal consumption tendency has no significant impacts on the effect of fiscal policies. The effect of fiscal policy will gradually be strengthened with the decrease of interest rate elasticity of investment. Therefore,policy makers should fully consider the impacts of expectation on the policy effect and attach importance to the impacts of investment on national economy.

关 键 词：附加适应性预期IS-LM模型 超额需求 政策效果 GAMS仿真模拟 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]