代谢综合征和Framingham风险评分预测哈萨克族人群心脑血管疾病的比较  

Comparison between metabolic syndrome and framingham risk score as predictor of cardiovascular disease among Kazakhs population

作　　者：郭淑霞[1] 杨雯雯 马儒林[1] 张向辉[1] 郭恒[1] 何佳[1] 毛磊[1] 木拉提[1] 王奎 胡云华[1] 闫贻忠 张景玉[1] 马娇龙 刘佳铭[1] 王馨平 Guo Shuxia;Yang Wenwen;Ma Rulin;Zhang Xianghui;Guo Heng;He Jia;Mao Lei;Mu Lati;Wang Kui;Hu Yunhua;Yan Yizhong;Zhang Jingyu;Ma Jiaolong;Liu Jiaming;Wang Xinping;Song Yanpeng(Department of Preventive Medicine,Shihezi University School of Medicine,Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学医学院预防医学系,832000

出　　处：《中华内分泌代谢杂志》2019年第12期1037-1042,共6页Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81560551)。

摘　　要：目的比较代谢综合征(MS)和Framingham风险评分预测哈萨克族人群心脑血管疾病(CVD)的能力。方法选择新疆伊犁新源县那拉提镇哈萨克族人群随访时间满5年者作为研究对象。根据Cox回归中MS各组分等危险因素分层后各层的回归系数的权重评分,形成连续性MS评分系统。用Cox比例风险模型和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线比较MS与Framingham风险评分预测CVD发病风险的能力。结果研究人群CVD的发病率为13.87%,MS组CVD的发病率高于非MS组(21.59%对11.10%,P<0.001)。MS评分的ROC曲线下面积明显大于MS二分类(0.727对0.585,P<0.001);MS评分的曲线下面积与Framingham风险评分接近(0.732对0.727,P=0.673)。在相同的暴露条件下,MS评分5分位分组后发生CVD的相对危险度值均大于相应Framingham风险评分组(4.61、9.33、14.15、22.29对3.69、6.36、8.47、16.99)。结论加入年龄因素后,MS评分预测CVD的能力达到Framingham风险评分相同水平,可能是哈萨克族人群CVD危险性预测的实用工具,并且能更好地反映出哈萨克族CVD发病风险的情况。Objective To compare metabolic syndrome(MS)with Framingham risk score as predictors of cardiovascular disease(CVD)among Kazakhs population.Methods The participants were the residents who had been followed up for more than 5 years in representative areas of Kazakhs in Xinjiang.We assigned MS a continuous risk score for predicting the development of CVD based on the weights of MS components.MS and Framingham risk score were compared in terms of their ability in predicting years in representative areas of Kazakhs in Xinjiang.We assigned MS a continuous risk score for predicting the development of CVD based on the weights of MS components.MS and Framingham risk score were compared in terms of their ability in predicting development of CVD using Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curve.Results The incidence of CVD was 13.87%.The incidence of CVD was higher in the MS group than it in the non-MS group(21.59%vs 11.10%,P<0.001).The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of MS risk score was significantly larger than that of MS classification(0.727 vs 0.585,P<0.001);the area under the curve of MS risk score was close to that of Framingham risk score(0.732 vs 0.727,P=0.673).The association between CVD and each quintile of MS risk score was more significant than that between Framingham risk score and CVD under the same exposed condition(4.61,9.33,14.15,22.29 vs 3.69,6.36,8.47,16.99).Conclusion MS risk score that included age may be a better predictor of CVD among Kazakhs population.

关 键 词：代谢综合征 Framingham风险评分 哈萨克族 心脑血管疾病 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病]