基于SWAT模型的气候变化和人类活动对伊洛河径流影响分析  

Research on Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Yiluo River Based on SWAT Model

作　　者：刘绿柳[1] 王秀杰[2] 张鹏飞[2] LIU Lyuliu;WANG Xiujie;ZHANG Pengfei(National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第1期1-6,75,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0605004、2018YFE0196000);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201924)

摘　　要：应用SWAT模型,以黄河流域伊洛河为研究对象,通过设置6种HRUs(Hydrological Response Units)划分方案,分析了HRUs数量对SWAT模型参数和模拟性能的影响,并进一步用于伊洛河年径流变化的归因分析。结果表明:SCS径流曲线值(CN2)、土壤有效含水率(SOL_AWC)、深层土壤水渗透系数(RCHRG_DP)和河岸基流α因子(ALPHA_BNK)是伊洛河SWAT径流模拟敏感性高的几个参数。HRUs数量对SWAT模型参数和径流模拟精度影响较小。相对1971-1985年,1986-2015年气候变化和人类活动共同导致了伊洛河流域径流的减少。其中,1986-1995年、1996-2005年、2006-2015年3个时期气候变化对径流变化相对贡献率分别为68.7%、22.5%、83.1%,LUCC外的其他形式的人类活动对径流变化相对贡献率分别为30.9%、76.7%和16.9%,而LUCC的相对贡献不足1%。人类活动能够有效地缓解气候变化对径流的影响,使河道观测径流保持在相对稳定的变化范围。Taking Yiluo River in the Yellow River Basin as the research object,this paper analyzes the impacts of numbers of HRUs(Hydrological Response Units)on SWAT model parameters and simulation performance and applies it on the attribution analysis of the change on annual runoff in Yiluo River by comparing among six HRUs division schemes.The results indicate that:CSC runoff curve number(CN2),available water capacity of soil layer(SOL_AWC),deep aquifer percclation fraction(RCHRG_DP),baseflow alpha factor for bank storage(ALPHA_BNK)are sensitive parameters in the SWAT runoff simulation of Yiluo River.The number of HRUs has limited effects on SWAT model parameters and runoff simulation accuracy.Affected by climate change and human activities,observed annual runoff during 1986 to 2015 decreased compared with that from 1971 to 1985.During the three periods of 1986—1995,1996—2005 and 2006—2015,the relative contribution rate of climate change on annual runoff change was 68.7%,22.5%and 83.1%respectively,that of human activities excluding LUCC was 30.9%,76.7%and 16.9%respectively,while that of LUCC was less than 1%.Therefore,human activities can reduce the impacts of climate change on runoff,and maintain the observed annual runoff of river within a stable range.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 HRUs划分 气候变化影响 人类活动影响 径流变化归因 伊洛河 

分 类 号：TV121.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]