基于灰色关联度-主成分法的高速公路雾灾评估模型——以沿海高速江苏段为例  

Assessment Model of Fog Disaster at Expressway Based on GRA-PCA:Taking Coastal Expressway in Jiangsu as an Example

作　　者：周林义[1] 钱玮 崔海蓉 王宏斌[1] ZHOU Lin-yi;QIAN Wei;CUI Hai-rong;WANG Hong-bin(Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology CMA,Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室,江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210008 [2]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京210044

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2020年第1期64-68,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：江苏省自然科学青年基金(BK20161073);江苏省气象局科研基金重点项目(KZ201907)

摘　　要：基于2010—2014年沿海高速江苏路段的管制信息和气象监测数据,详细分析了大雾灾害发生时的数据特征,构建了高速公路雾灾灾情评估指标体系。进一步构建了基于色关联度-主成分法(GRA-PCA)的高速公路雾灾灾情评估模型,即运用灰色关联度分析法计算各指标样本数据的关联系数,运用主成分分析法获得各指标关联系数的权重,通过指标关联系数的加权平均值获得更加符合实际的灾害划分等级。通过对沿海高速江苏路段的实例分析,认为江苏省交通厅在雾灾预警和管制方面的工作有效降低了雾灾发生时的损失程度,但仍有可改进的空间,以杜绝Ⅰ特别重大和Ⅱ重大情况的发生。Using information of the traffic control and meteorological monitoring in the Jiangsu section of the coastal expressway from 2010 to 2014,the data characteristics of heavy fog disaster appearance was analyzed in detail,an evaluation index system of fog disaster on the expressway established,and an evaluation model of fog disaster on expressway constructed based on grey relational analysis-principal component analysis(GRA-PCA).In other words,grey correlation analysis method was used to calculate the correlation of the sample data of each index,and the principal component analysis to obtain the weight of the correlation of each index.The weighted average value of correlation of the index was used to approach more realistic disaster grading.The application for the Jiangsu section in early warning and control of fog disaster showed that our model could reduce effectively the loss in fog disaster events.However,there are some rooms for the improvement to eliminate the occurrence of Grades I and II(China’s classification)accidents in fogy days on highways.

关 键 词：交通安全 指标体系 灾情评估 灰色关联度 主成分分析 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]