我国社会办医政策评价及民营医院医疗服务发展预测  

Evaluation of China’s private medical policy and forecast of private medical service development

作　　者：韦柳丝 曾柳艳 张新花 WEI Liu-si;ZENG Liu-yan;ZHANG Xin-hua(School of Information and Management,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning Guangxi 530021,China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学信息与管理学院

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2020年第2期18-24,41,共8页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：广西研究生教育创新计划项目:运用数据包络模型评价2011-2015年广西中医药事业发展现状及趋势(YCSW2018113)

摘　　要：[目的]评价2009-2018年我国社会办医政策内容,并结合政策特征预测分析民营医院医疗服务供需的可能性发展趋势。[方法]基于Rothwell&Zegveld政策分析工具从供给型、需求型及环境型3个维度对2009-2018年我国出台的20个"社会办医"政策进行编码归纳及量化评价后,基于政策特征根据MATLAB构建GM(1,1)模型,预测分析2018-2022年我国民营医院数、床位数、诊疗人次及入院人数情况。[结果] 2009-2018年我国社会办医政策中供给型政策占比26. 5%、需求型占比20. 5%、环境型占比52. 9%。其中供给型政策以"放宽社会办医服务领域"政策工具使用为主(39. 3%),需求型政策以"税收与价格政策"为主(27. 6%),环境型政策以"规范社会办医疗机构准入与监督管理"为主(占比29. 6%)。基于稳定政策环境下,至2022年,我国民营医院数、床位数、诊疗人次及入院人数分别增加至35963个、3025808张、95558. 1万人次、8088. 4万人次,年均增长率分别达为18. 3%、20. 6%、19. 3%、28. 7%,相比2010-2017年增长率分别降低2. 4、16. 7、4. 9、10. 7个百分点。[结论] 2009-2018年社会办医政策工具使用失衡,以环境型政策居多,供给型与需求型政策运用不足,不利于社会办医机构可持续发展,应强化供给需求政策的运用,注重各类政策的均衡使用。2018-2022年我国民营医院医疗资源配置与服务需求持续增长但增幅水平逐年压缩。Objective To evaluate the policy content of in China from 2009 to 2018,forecast and analyze possibility development of medical service supply and demand in private hospitals which combine with policy characteristic. Methods Based on Rothwell &zegveld policy analysis tool,it conducted coding,induction and quantitative evaluation to 20 private medical policies which issued by central government from 2009 to2018 by three dimensionality of supply,demand and environment. Based on the policy characteristics,MATLAB constructed GM( 1,1)model,it predicted and analyzed the number of private hospital,bed,and patient,person-time of diagnosis and treatment from 2018 to2022. Results From 2009 to 2018,the proportion of supply-oriented policy for private medical was 26. 5%,demand-oriented policy was20. 5% and environment-oriented policy was 52. 9%. The supply-oriented policy mainly relied on the policy of "broaden private medical service field"( 39. 3%),the demand-oriented policy mainly relied on the policy of"tax and price"( 27. 6%),and the environmental policy mainly focused on"standardizing the access,supervision and management of private medical institution"( 29. 6%). Based on the stable policy environment,the number of private hospital,bed,and patient,person-time of diagnosis and treatment would increase to 35963,3025808,9555810,and 80. 84 million respectively in 2022,with average annual growth rate of 18. 3%,20. 6%,19. 3% and 28. 7% respectively. Compared with in 2017,annual rate of growth reduced 2. 4%,16. 7%,4. 9% and 10. 7% respectively. Conclusions From 2009 to 2018,the usage of medical policy tools are unbalanced,environmental policy is in the majority,and insufficient use of supply and demand policy,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of private medical institution. We should strengthen the application of supply and demand policy,pay more attention to the balanced use of various policies. From 2018 to 2022,the allocation of medical resources and the demand for medical services in private hospitals i

关 键 词：社会办医 民营医院 政策分析工具 灰色预测模型 供给 需求 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]