境外融资纳入社会融资规模统计研究  

Statistical Research on the Scale of Foreign Financing Incorporated into Social Financing

作　　者：卜国军[1] 许芳 王永俊[2] 李彦 郝立庆 Bu Guojun;Xu Fang;Wang Yongjun;Li Yan;Hao Liqing(Business Administration Department of PBC,Beijing 100045,China;PBC Kelamayi Central Sub-branch,Kelamayi 834000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行营业管理部,北京100045 [2]中国人民银行克拉玛依市中心支行,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2020年第1期55-62,共8页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：社会融资规模已成为我国货币政策的调控指标。目前,随着资本项目的日益开放,境外融资已成为境内实体经济融资的重要渠道,使社会融资规模统计的居民原则面临现实挑战。本文在测算2002-2017年我国实体经济境外融资规模的基础上,提出了全口径社会融资规模概念。与社会融资规模相比,全口径社会融资规模和货币政策最终目标、操作目标之间的相关性更强。计量分析表明,全口径社会融资规模与货币政策最终目标和操作目标之间存在先行、因果和长期均衡关系。本文论证了将境外融资纳入社会融资规模统计的必要性,分析了统计上的可行性,最后提出相关政策建议。The scale of social financing has become the control indicator of monetary policy in China.At present,with the increasing opening of capital account,overseas financing has become an important channel for domestic real economy to finance,which makes the residents'principle of social financing scale statistics confront with actual challenges.On the basis of calculating the overseas financing scale of China's real economy from 2002 to 2017,this paper puts forward the concept of full-caliber social financing scale.Compared with the scale of social financing,the correlation among the scale of full-caliber social financing,the final goal of monetary policy and the operating target is stronger.The econometric analysis shows that there is relationship featuring antecedence,causality and long-term equilibrium among full-caliber social financing scale,final goal of monetary policy and the operational target.This paper demonstrates the necessity of integrating overseas financing into social financing scale statistics,analyzes the statistical feasibility,and finally puts forward relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：社会融资规模 境外融资 货币调控 宏观审慎 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]