草地贪夜蛾对我国玉米产业的潜在经济损失评估  

Potential economic loss assessment of maize industry caused by fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in China

作　　者：秦誉嘉 杨冬才 康德琳 赵紫华 赵中华[2] 杨普云[2] 李志红 QIN Yujia;YANG Dongcai;KANG Delin;ZHAO Zihua;ZHAO Zhonghua;YANG Puyun;LI Zhihong(College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;National Agro-tech Extension and Service Center,Beijing 100125,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学植物保护学院,北京100193 [2]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125

出　　处：《植物保护》2020年第1期69-73,共5页Plant Protection

基　　金：中欧国际贸易重要仓储害虫入侵机制与检疫技术体系(2018YFE0108700)

摘　　要：草地贪夜蛾Spodoptera frugiperda,又称秋黏虫,起源于美洲。自2019年1月入侵我国云南以来,目前已扩散至我国25个省、市(区)。目前在我国发现的草地贪夜蛾主要为害玉米,本研究在收集了草地贪夜蛾的为害及防治情况,玉米的产量、面积、价格等相关数据的基础上,利用随机模型@RISK分别预测了其在防治与不防治场景下对我国玉米产业的潜在经济损失。结果表明,在不防治场景下,草地贪夜蛾对我国玉米的潜在经济损失总量的90%置信区间为375.68亿~3283.45亿元,投入防治后可挽回的潜在经济损失90%置信区间为254.78亿~2918.93亿元。因此,为保护我国玉米种植业的安全生产,应加强田间防治来降低其对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失。Fall armyworm,Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith),native to America,has invaded China in the early of 2019,and spread to 25 provinces till now,mainly damaged maize in China.In this study,the data on the occurrence area of fall armyworm and damaged area of maize by this pest,as well as the growing areas,yields,and prices of maize in China were collected,and then the potential economic loss of maize caused by fall armyworm under control and non-control conditions were predicted using the random [e-mail] results showed that under non-control scenario,the potential economic loss of maize will be 37.568 billion-328.345 billion RMB(90%confidence interval),but about 25.478 billion-291.893 billion RMB(90%confidence interval)losses will be retrieved if the pest be effectively controlled.Therefore,field control strategies should be strengthened in order to protect the maize industry and reduce the economic loss in China.

关 键 词：草地贪夜蛾 玉米 @RISK 潜在经济损失 

分 类 号：S435[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]