“一带一路”沿线国家外债风险评价及启示——基于31个沿线国家的数据分析  

Risk Assessment and Enlightenment of the External-Debt of the Countries along the " Belt and Road"——An Analysis Based on Data from 31 Countries

作　　者：胡颖[1] 刘营营 Hu Ying;Liu Yingying(Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《新疆财经》2020年第1期62-71,共10页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“以中哈产能合作促进区域命运共同体建设研究”（18XGJ002）;教育部国别区域研究基地项目“哈萨克斯坦第三次现代化与中哈产能合作研究”;新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目“基于动态因子模型的中国对‘一带一路’沿线国家直接投资风险评价与防范”(XJUFE2019K039)

摘　　要："一带一路"沿线国家的外债风险对中国企业境外投资的经济效益和社会效应都有重要影响。本文以负债率、偿债率和债务率指标为基础构建了外债风险评价指标体系,选取"一带一路"沿线31个国家2010年-2017年的数据,运用模糊物元分析法综合测度沿线国家的外债风险,并进行成因分析。研究结果表明:"一带一路"沿线国家外债风险总体呈上升趋势;蒙古、老挝、斯里兰卡、乌克兰、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦等国家的外债风险非常高;财政赤字、贸易条件恶化、国际市场利率提高是推动沿线国家外债风险上升的最主要原因。为提升中国企业对沿线国家直接投资的质量和效益,中国企业应优化直接投资的空间布局,减少对高外债风险国家的投资;拓宽投资领域,增加非能源领域的投资,带动沿线国家经济增长和就业;投资前应严格审核项目,合理融资方式,避免增加债务风险。The external-debt risks of the countries along the "Belt and Road" have an important impact on the economic and social effects of China OFDI. Selecting data from 31 countries along the "Belt and Road" to build an external-debt risk evaluation index system and employing fuzzy matter-element analysis to comprehensively measure the external-debt risk of countries along the "Belt and Road", this paper analyses the reason of the risks. The results show that the external-debt risks of the countries along the "Belt and Road" are generally on the rise;the external-debt risks of Mongolia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Kyrgyzstan are very high;fiscal deficits, deteriorating terms of trade, and rising international market interest rates are the main factors which lead to high external-debt risk of countries along the "Belt and Road". In order to improve the quality and efficiency of China OFDI in countries along the "Belt and Road", Chinese companies should optimize the spatial layout of direct investment and reduce investment in countries with high foreign debt risks;optimize the investment field, increase investment in non-energy sectors, and promote economic growth and employment in countries along the belt and road;projects should be strictly reviewed before investment,and adopt reasonable financing methods to avoid increasing external-debt risks of countries along the "Belt and Road".

关 键 词：丝路经济 “一带一路”沿线国家 外债规模 外债结构 外债清偿能力 外债风险评价 对外直接投资 模糊物元分析法 

分 类 号：F811.5[经济管理—财政学]