军火贸易、军事开支与经济增长——基于索洛模型的分析  

Arms Trade, Military Spending and Economic Growth——the Analysis Based on the Solow Model

作　　者：陈波[1] 邢政君 CHEN Bo;XING Zhengjun(Institute of Defense Economics and Management,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院

出　　处：《南京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期92-98,共7页Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics（Social Sciences）

基　　金：北京市高精尖学科战略经济与军民融合交叉学科支持项目(2019053);中央财经大学战略经济对抗与经济战争模拟仿真推演项目(022951619001)

摘　　要：军火贸易是军事开支的重要支出项,军事开支与经济增长存在非常复杂的关系。在研究军事开支与经济增长之间关系的理论框架下引入军火贸易的情况,利用Solow经济增长模型并选取双向固定效应估计方法对25个武器出口大国的相关数据进行回归分析,以研究军事开支、军火贸易与经济增长之间的关系。研究发现军事开支与武器出口单独对经济增长产生影响时,会阻碍经济的增长,但是如果该国是一个武器的净出口国,那么高军费对于经济增长的消极影响会被减弱。Arms trade is an important expenditure in military spending. There is a very complex relationship between military spending and economic growth. The paper introduces the arms trade under the framework of military expenditure and economic growth. Using the Solow economic growth model and selecting the two-way fixed effect estimator, panel regression analysis is carried out on the data of 25 countries to study the relationship between arms trade, military spending and economic growth. The study finds that when military spending and net arms exports are the only factors for economic growth, it will result in a negative impact on economic growth, but if the country is a net exporter of weapons, the negative impact of high military spending on economic growth will be weakened.

关 键 词：军火贸易 军事开支 经济增长 索洛模型 

分 类 号：F063.3[经济管理—政治经济学]