中国东部降水的极端特性及其气候特征分析  

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES AND PECULIARITIES OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA

作　　者：齐庆华 QI Qing-hua(Third Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部第三海洋研究所

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2019年第6期742-755,共14页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项（2017YFA0604901）;福建省自然科学基金面上项目（2017J01076）;中国清洁发展机制基金项目（2014112）共同资助

摘　　要：基于1960—2017年观测数据分析了中国东部降水极端特性的地区差异、季节和气候学特征及变化格局,探讨了与全球变化和区域气候变率的关联性。结果表明,极端性降水的演化与降水均值或总量的气候型态、降水集中性和持续性密切关联,尤其雨带迁移和雨型演替是影响极端性降水地区差异与时空演变的根本因素。气候变化背景下,中国东部极端性降水强度和频次变化存在较好的协同一致性,近60年来在长江以南,强度加大的地区极端性降水亦趋于频发。同时,两者季节特征和地区差异明显。春季东北地区及华北北部极端性降水强度和频次均有明显增加。近60年来夏季极端性降水强度和频次的趋势变化在长江以南均以增加为主,以北以下降为主。秋季极端性降水强度和频次在华北地区亦呈增加趋势。冬季华南和江南地区极端性降水强度和频次趋势变化均以增加为主。华北地区及以北和内蒙古的西部冬季极端性降水强度增加显著,但频次变化不明显。而东北地区北部冬季极端性降水在强度减小的情形下,其频次仍趋显著增加。特别是中国降水主要集中在夏季,自1980年代以来中国东部夏季多雨带南移,雨型以北方型和中间型占优,转换为以长江型和华南型为主,多雨带的极端性降水群发性强,影响指数显著增加。此外,太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)暖位相及ENSO暖事件期间,长江以北夏季极端性降水的影响指数会显著降低。而东亚夏季风的减弱则有利于长江中下游等地区夏季极端性降水的频发和群发,极端性降水强度加大,其影响的危险性趋于增强。The precipitation over eastern China tends to be extreme events.This peculiarity and its seasonal differences,climatic features and spatio-temporal patterns are mainly analyzed based on the observations during 1960 to 2017.Therewith,its relationship with global change,regional climatic and oceanic variability is discussed.The results show that the evolution of the precipitation extremes(PE)are closely related to the climatologic patterns of mean or total precipitation as well as peculiarities of concentration and persistence.The migration of the rain belt(RB)and the succession of rainy patterns(RP)are the essential factors influencing the formation of local differences and the spatio-temporal evolution of the PE.Under the background of climate change,the changes of PE intensity and frequency have good synergistic consistency.The PE in areas with high frequency also has high intensity especially in the south of Yangtze River.Otherwise,the local and seasonal differences of the PE intensity and frequency are obvious.The PE intensity and frequency increase obviously in northeast China and the northern north China in spring.The intensity and frequency of summer PE have been increasing in the south of the Yangtze River but decreasing in the northern areas for recent 60 years.In autumn,the PE intensity and frequency in northern China both increase slightly.And in winter they both increase in southern China and the Jiangnan area(the south of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River).Though the PE intensity increases significantly in northern China and the west of Inner Mongolia,the frequency does not change distinctively in winter.In the northern part of Northeast China,under the scenario of the intensity decreasing of winter PE,the long-term trend of the frequency still shows a significant increase.Particularly,the RB in summer has moved southward since the 1980s,and the RP is dominant from the northern and the middle patterns to the Yangtze River and the south China patterns.The PE in rainy belts highly clusters,and the

关 键 词：极端降水 雨带迁移 夏季雨型 持续性 集中性 群发性 灾害风险 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]