生育成本对二孩生育意愿的影响  

The Impact of Fertility Costs on the Willingness to Have the Second Child

作　　者：段继红[1] 苏华山[1] 张成[1] DUAN Ji-hong;SU Hua-shan;ZHANG Cheng(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《当代财经》2020年第1期17-26,共10页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目“江苏省‘全面二孩’政策的实施效果及经济增长效应研究”(2017SJB0240);江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏省高质量发展测度及转型路径研究”(18EYB002)

摘　　要：解决人口问题的关键在于探明目前低生育意愿的根本原因。基于机会成本理论,引入显性成本和隐性成本,从生育二孩的成本与收益两个角度进行理论分析,并根据调查数据,实证检验了影响二孩生育意愿的因素。研究发现:生育过程中的疼痛或危险性、一孩抵触、休闲时间的减少、没人带孩子、经济承受能力、优生少生、更多家庭纠纷这些因素对二孩生育意愿均有显著的负面影响,是制约人们自主生育意愿的主要因素,而其中的隐性成本则是导致女性二孩生育意愿普遍低于男性的原因。结合不同地区的人文社会环境考察二孩生育意愿的地区差异,结果发现,地区差异对二孩生育意愿有显著影响。因此,人口政策的具体实施也应该把地区差异考虑在内。The key to solving the population problem is to find out the root cause of the current low fertility willingness.Based on the opportunity cost theory,this paper introduces the explicit costs and hidden costs to conduct a theoretical analysis from the two perspectives of the cost and benefits of giving birth to the second child.Then based on the survey data,it empirically tests the factors that affect the fertility willingness of the second child.The findings show that such factors as the pain or danger during childbirth,the first child’s resistance,reduced leisure time,no one to care about the children,economic affordability,giving better and fewer births,and more family disputes all have a significant negative impact on the second child’s fertility willingness,which are the major factors restricting people’s child-bearing willingness of their own,among which,the explicit costs is the cause leading to the willingness of second child bearing of women generally lower than men.When studying the regional differences by taking into the consideration the human and social environ-ments in different regions,it is found that the regional differences have a significant impact on the second child-bearing willingness.Therefore,the specific implementation of population policy should also take into account the regional differences.

关 键 词：二孩困境 生育意愿 全面二孩 生育成本 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]