基于云模型理论的通风系统可靠性评价研究  

Research on reliability evaluation of ventilation system based on cloud model theory

作　　者：许旭 谢贤平[1] 郭宇航 黄兆兴 许秦 XU Xu;XIE Xianping;GUO Yuhang;HUANG Zhaoxing;XU Qin(School of Land and Resources Engineering≫Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China;Food Safety Research Institute≫Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China;Kunming Municipal Food and Drug Inspection Institute Kunming Yunnan 650000,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093 [2]昆明理工大学食品安全研究院,云南昆明650093 [3]昆明市食品药品检验所,左南昆明650000

出　　处：《化工矿物与加工》2020年第1期7-11,19,共6页Industrial Minerals & Processing

摘　　要：通风系统内各子系统的故障概率会随着设备工作的时长升高,同时导致系统整体工作效率降低,以上两种指标的数据一旦达到一定的临界值,将会导致整个通风系统失效。云理论可以在知识的定性描述中,提供定量与定性的模型数值转换,并考虑实际评估对象的随机性。以云南朱家坝铜矿西部采场通风系统为例,划分矿井通风系统可靠性评估指标等级,利用可靠性标尺贝叶斯反馈修正得到通风系统的可靠性等级,建立通风系统可靠性综合云模型,综合测评云模型参数并进行反馈修正,结果表明:通风系统可靠性整体属于"较好",等级的置信度为0.955。可靠性分析结果对矿井通风系统提升并保持工作能力具有一定的指导作用。The failure probability of each subsystem in the ventilation system will increase with the working time of the equipment,and at the same time,the overall working efficiency of the system will decrease.Once the data of the above two indicators reach a certain critical value,it will lead to the failure of the whole ventilation system.Cloud theory can provide quantitative and qualitative model numerical conversion in the qualitative description of knowledge,and consider the randomness of the actual evaluation object.Taking the ventilation system of the west stope of Zhujiaba Copper Mine in Yunnan as an example,the reliability evaluation index grade of the mine ventilation system was divided,the reliability grade of the ventilation system was obtained by using Bayesian feedback correction of the reliability scale,the reliability comprehensive cloud model of the ventilation system was established,and the parameters of the cloud model were evaluated comprehensively,and the feedback correction was made.The results showed that the reliability of ventilation system as a whole belongs to "good",and the confidence level is 0.955.The results of reliability analysis have a certain guiding role for mine ventilation system to upgrade and maintain working capacity.

关 键 词：矿井通风系统 云模型 系统可靠性 贝叶斯理论 权重云 判断矩阵 云滴 

分 类 号：TD725[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]