新型城镇化与产业结构升级耦合、协调和优化  

Research on the Coupling,Coordination and Optimization of Chinas New Urbanization and Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：王芳[1] 田明华[1] 秦国伟 WANG Fang;TIAN Ming-hua;QIN Guo-wei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Anhui Provincial Department of Forestry,Hefei 230001,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]安徽省林业局,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2020年第3期59-68,共10页East China Economic Management

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“新型城镇化与产业结构演进中的农业产业结构调整与农业剩余劳动力转移研究”（2019YC20）;北京市社会科学基金重点项目“北京市古树名木保护与管理中的公众参与机制研究”（17GLA005）;教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金一般项目“低碳经济下中国木质林产品贸易政策转型研究”（13YJA790106）

摘　　要：文章利用2003-2017年全国30个省区市的面板数据,建立面板向量自回归模型、耦合协调度模型、面板中介效应模型及面板门槛模型,实证研究中国新型城镇化与产业结构升级的耦合、协调和优化。结果表明:二者互为格兰杰因果,产业结构升级的影响力更大;二者的耦合协调度处于中度失调至初级协调之间,地区差异显著;新型城镇化通过影响地区经济发展水平、物质资本、外商投资、对外开放程度等因素推动产业结构升级,产业结构升级通过作用于市场因素、人力资本、技术进步、金融支撑等因素带动新型城镇化发展;部分变量的中介传导作用具有显著的门槛效应。文章基于二者相互促进的内在循环机制,提出实现新型城镇化与产业结构升级协同发展的政策建议。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017,panel vector autoregression model(PVAR),coupling coordination model,panel intermediary effect model and panel threshold model are constructed to empirically analyze the coupling,coordination and optimization of Chinas new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading.The results show that new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading are granger causality to each other,that is,they are bidirectional,and the influence of industrial structure upgrading is greater;the coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading is between moderate imbalance and primary coordination,and there are great differences among different regions;new urbanization promotes industrial structure upgrading by affecting regional economic development level,physical capital,foreign investment,degree of opening-up,etc.And in turn,industrial structure upgrading drives the development of new urbanization by acting on market factors,human capital,technical progress financial support,etc.;the intermediary conduction effect of some variables between new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading has significant threshold effect.Generally speaking,there is a mutually reinforcing internal circulation mechanism between new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading.On this basis,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy and suggestion of realizing the coordinated development of new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 产业结构升级 面板向量自回归模型 面板中介效应模型 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济] F264