货币政策工具选择和小微企业融资经营——基于全国调查数据的实证研究和DSGE模型的分析  

Selection of Monetary PolicyTools and Financing Operation of Small and Micro Enterprises——Empirical Research based on National Survey Data and Analysis based on DSGE Model

作　　者：中国人民银行成都分行调查统计处课题组 周丹 李鑫 马锐敏 付恩珊 张沥文 Research Group of Statistics and analysic Division,Chengdu Branch,PBOC

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《西南金融》2020年第2期3-17,共15页Southwest Finance

摘　　要：中央银行应如何选择货币政策工具,在小微企业风险可控的前提下激发小微企业经营活力,是当前小微企业金融支持政策设计的核心问题。本文基于2018年全国31个省(市、区)小微企业融资调查数据,系统梳理小微企业融资和经营行为的特征化事实,并建立计量模型从实证层面研究了不同货币政策工具、小微企业自身风险差异对小微企业融资经营行为的影响。在实证研究的基础上,本文更进一步建立包含小微企业部门的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,对模型参数进行校准和贝叶斯估计,并模拟分析不同货币政策工具对小微企业融资和经营行为的影响。本文通过实证研究和模型模拟分析发现,数量型货币政策工具在促进小微企业融资和经营指标改善方面相对优于价格型工具;小微企业的风险对于其融资和经营有重要影响;加强小微企业货币政策支持的预期管理能够有效提高货币政策的传导效果,改善社会福利。How to choose a monetary policy tool for the central bank to stimulate the viability of small and micro enterprises under the premise of controllable risks is a core issue in the design of financial support policies for small and micro enterprises.Based on the survey data of small and micro enterprises'financing in 31 provinces(cities and regions)in 2018,this paper systematically sorts out the characteristic facts of small and micro enterprises'financing and operating behavior,and establishes an econometric model to study the impact of different monetary policy tools and the risks of small and micro enterprises on their financing operations from an empirical level.Based on empiri cal research,this article further establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that includes small and micro enterprises sectors,calibrates and takes Bayesian estimates of model parameters,simulates and ana lyzes the impact of different monetary policy tools on the financing and operating behavior of small and micro enter prises.Through empirical research and model simulation analysis,this paper finds that quantitative monetary policy tools are relatively better than price tools in promoting the improvement of financing and operating indicators of small and micro enterprises,the risks of small and micro enterprises have an important impact on their financing and operations,and strengthening the expectation management of small and micro enterprises'monetary policy support can effectively improve the transmission effect of monetary policy,thus increase the social welfare.

关 键 词：货币政策工具 小微企业融资 小微企业经营 融资成本 信息不对称 融资约束 信贷配给 融资可得性 预期管理 融资担保 数量型货币政策 价格型货币政策 金融支持实体经济 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F275