空气污染排放视角下中国核电的健康效益  

Health Benefits of Nuclear Power in China from the Perspective of Air Pollution Emissions

作　　者：夏凡[1,2] 廉超 王明煌[1] 邹小亮[1] 付雪微 柏云清 李亚洲[1] 陈珊琦[1] Xia Fan;Lian Chao;Wang Minghuang;Zou Xiaoliang;Fu Xuewei;Bai Yunqing;Li Yazhou;Chen Shanqi(Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety,Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology,Chinese Academy of Science,Hefei 230031,China;University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院核能安全技术研究所中子输运理论与辐射安全重点实验室,合肥230031 [2]中国科学技术大学,合肥230026

出　　处：《核安全》2020年第1期50-57,共8页Nuclear Safety

基　　金：国家自然基金项目：71671179;国家核安全局核与辐射安全监管项目：JD201929

摘　　要：核电在改善空气质量方面具有重要的作用。本文对比了核电与煤电的空气污染物排放系数,根据空气污染物引起的死亡率与人均燃煤发电量的负指数幂关系,评估了中国通过发展核电在改善空气质量方面对居民的健康效益,并对未来的健康效益进行了分析。结果显示,发展核电能够避免的死亡人数在增加。据估算,1995—2018年,中国核电累计可避免约4.7万人因空气污染物死亡,可避免约22.6万人因空气污染物患病。2020—2030年,预计会避免8.3万~9.4万人死亡,避免39.7万~45.1万人患病。Nuclear power plays an important role in improving air quality.Firstly,we compare the air pollutant emission coefficient between nuclear power and coal power,and then,based on the negative power relationship between the death rate caused by air pollutants and coal-fired power generation per capita,the health benefits to residents of improving air quality through the development of nuclear power in China were evaluated histori⁃cally,and analyzes the future health benefits.The result show that:an increase in the number of deaths that can be avoided by developing nuclear power.It is estimated that from 1995 to 2018,a total of 47000 deaths and 226000 illnesses caused by air pollutants could be avoided by nuclear power in China.Between 2020 and 2030,83000 to 94000 deaths and 397000 to 451000 illnesses are expected to be avoided.

关 键 词：核电 煤电 空气污染物 健康效益 

分 类 号：TL99[核科学技术—核技术及应用]