基于生命周期理论的公共危机舆情事件研究  

Study on Public Crisis and Public Opinion Based on Lifecycle Theory

作　　者：任凯 吴冬芹 郭黎黎 REN Kai;WU Dongqin;GUO Lili(School of Information Science and Engineering,Jinling College,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210089,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学金陵学院信息科学与工程学院

出　　处：《现代信息科技》2019年第24期1-4,共4页Modern Information Technology

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目:大数据背景下社交网络舆情的生命周期研究(项目编号:2018SJA2069)

摘　　要：近年来随着对网络舆情研究的持续深入,政府公共危机舆情处理机制不断得到完善和创新,但在新形势下依旧存在一些问题。本文梳理了舆情的研究现状和舆情的生命周期理论,采用百度指数和微指数两个大数据平台的数据,以“福州赵宇案”为例阐述公共危机舆情事件的引控现状。研究结果表明:舆情事件研究选用单一的数据监测方案和评估策略存有局限性,综合衡量多方数据有助于保证数据的全面性和客观性;不同的舆情数据来源统计可以说明不同实质问题,以短视频等形式出现的新平台成为舆情引控“新阵地”;新形势下互联网的高度开放性、互动性和快速放大效应,使得公共危机舆情事件存在潜伏期短、传播迅速等特性,给识别、监控工作带来了新的挑战。In recent years,with the in-depth study of internet public opinion,the government public crisis public opinion processing mechanism has been continuously improved and innovated.However,there are still some problems in new situation.This paper reviews the research status of public opinion and the life cycle theory of public opinion.Based on the data of two big data platforms from Baidu Index and Micro Index,this paper takes“Zhao Yu case in Fuzhou”as an example to explain the current situation of public opinion events in public crisis.The results show that there are limitations in the single data monitoring scheme and evaluation strategy for public opinion event research,and comprehensive measurement of multiple data helps to ensure the comprehensiveness and objectivity of data;different statistics of public opinion data sources can explain different substantive issues,and the new platform in the form of short video becomes a“new position”for public opinion guidance and control.Under the new situation,the high openness,interactivity and rapid amplification effect of the internet make the public opinion of public crisis have the characteristics of short latency and rapid propagation,which brings new challenges to the identification and monitoring work.

关 键 词：生命周期理论 网络舆情 公共危机舆情事件 舆情反转 

分 类 号：TP311.13[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] TP393.09[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]