非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定  

Identification and Determination of Non-typical Period and Abrupt Climate Changes

作　　者：秦建国[1] QIN Jianguo(Wuxi Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Wuxi 214031,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局

出　　处：《水文》2020年第1期23-28,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

摘　　要：通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。This paper analyzed the mutation and periodicity of interannual precipitation variation using new methods, which revealed the natural law of the evolution of drought and flood. The results show that the critical years of the abrupt climate change are1934, 1978 and 2013, which are the natural choices of drought and flood evolution. The observation history of interannual precipitation at the Wuxi Station can be divided into four periods with different characteristics, and each period is corresponding with one abrupt climate change. The abrupt climate change would change the consistency of interannual precipitation series, but the partition method can greatly reduce the difficulty of simulation and increase the efficiency of prediction. This paper found three abrupt climate change points, and realized the precise interpolation of the drought and flood trend during the long ungauged period(13 a). Finally, the periodic analysis of rainfall series and the prediction simulation of drought and flood trend were completed. The research results have changed the present situation that the modern climate history can not be subdivided.

关 键 词：时间序列 气候突变 分段法 非典型周期 预测模拟 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P426.616[水利工程—水文学及水资源]